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NATIONAL PULSE – Liberals claw back into close race with Conservatives

By ANGUS REID INSTITUTE

August 29, 2019 – The latest public opinion survey from the non-profit Angus Reid Institute finds the ethics commissioner’s mid-August ruling that Prime Minister Justin Trudeau committed an ethics violation in his handling of the SNC-Lavalin affair has done little to impede the Liberal Party’s slow climb back into the good graces of voters.

Casting ahead to an expected October vote, 36 per cent of Canadians say they would support the Conservative Party candidate in their riding. Meanwhile, the Liberals garner 32 per cent support – their highest level in the Angus Reid Institute’s 2019 polling.

Link to the poll here: www.angusreid.org

For the Conservatives, a competitive race in Ontario is a cause for optimism. The party lost Canada’s largest province by 10 points in 2015, but now sits in a statistical tie with the Liberals (36% CPC, 35% Liberal).

The Liberals, meanwhile, appear – at least for now – to have emerged from the dark tunnel that was the SNC-Lavalin scandal, with strong support in Quebec, where voters express a preference for the Liberals over the CPC by close to a two-to-one margin (38% Liberal, 20% CPC). Significantly, the party also appears to be adding more distance between itself and its left of centre competitors, the NDP and Green Party.

That said, while the incumbent party looks to pull even with the opposition CPC, the Prime Minister himself continues to struggle in his attempt to regain the personal appeal he once held. Just 31 per cent of Canadians say they have a favourable opinion of the Prime Minister, compared to 38 per cent for Conservative leader Andrew Scheer (38%). While Green Party leader Elizabeth May remains the most personally popular federal leader (42%), her own favourability has declined considerably compared to early-summer polling.

More Key Findings:

  • More than one-third of those who supported the Liberals in 2015 (36%) say they plan to support another party at this point. 13 per cent lean toward the Conservatives and 12 per cent toward the NDP, while the rest have scattered to another party
  • Regionally, the CPC holds significant leads in Alberta, Saskatchewan and Manitoba. Ontario, British Columbia and Atlantic Canada remain close, and the Liberals lead by a considerable margin in Quebec
  • Elizabeth May is the most popular federal leader. However, an equal number of Canadians have a favourable (42%) and unfavourable (42%) opinion of her. This represents a decrease in net favourability (favourable minus unfavourable), as May was a +8 in July and a +15 in June
  • Every other federal leader has a negative net favourability rating (favourable minus unfavourable); Scheer -14, Singh -19, Trudeau -32, Bernier -43.
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About Mel Rothenburger (6879 Articles)
ArmchairMayor.ca is a forum about Kamloops and the world. It has more than one million views. Mel Rothenburger is the former Editor of The Daily News in Kamloops, B.C. (retiring in 2012), and past mayor of Kamloops (1999-2005). At ArmchairMayor.ca he is the publisher, editor, news editor, city editor, reporter, webmaster, and just about anything else you can think of. He is grateful for the contributions of several local columnists. This blog doesn't require a subscription but gratefully accepts donations to help defray costs.

2 Comments on NATIONAL PULSE – Liberals claw back into close race with Conservatives

  1. It’s hard to grasp that anyone actually believes that these particular individuals represent anything approximating the capacity for real leadership. In a country of 38,000,000, are these the best prospective leaders that our undemocratic party system can dredge up? If so, there is something systematically wrong with our recruitment process and it’s apparent inability to present the electorate with viable choices.

  2. I believe that the Liberals will again win by another landslide. Howdy Doody is too immature and has to be told what to say. It was foolish for the Cons to choose him as their leader. Did they really think that they needed someone young to beat Trudeau, terribly short sighted of them.

    We certainly do not need another Con whackadoodle in Ottawa. That bobblehead we have locally needs to get the boot too. She just sits there and nods her head no matter what a Con says, it would be interesting to be able to ask her what the person just said. I suspect most of the time she would not have a clue. I have lived here in Kamloops for over 5 years and I have never seen her anywhere and I am outdoors pretty much daily, where is she hiding?

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