BC PULSE – NDP in double-digit lead; Rustad and Falcon lack appeal

By ANGUS REID INSTITUTE

May 30, 2024 – In the latest iterative developments from the annals of “B.C.-politics-is-never-boring,” breathless speculation about the fate of two centre-right parties has dominated backroom and chattering class conversations for weeks.

But shifting political currents on the surface – from BC United to the Conservative Party of BC – belie the fluidity of each party’s vote. In the wake of a failed merger between the entities, each party leader must now attempt to differentiate themselves to a vote base largely open to either.

A significant problem for BC Conservative leader John Rustad will be overcoming the “unknown” factor: when British Columbians are asked, unaided, to match an image of B.C.’s four main party leaders with the movements they lead, the majority (54%) cannot do so for Rustad.

New public opinion data from the non-profit Angus Reid Institute reveals another challenge for both Rustad and BC United leader Kevin Falcon: when respondents are aware of who both men are, perceptions of each are hardly enthusiastic, especially for the latter. Fully 54 per cent of British Columbians have an unfavourable view of Falcon. For Rustad, it’s 44 per cent, twice the number who think well of him (22%).

Positive perceptions of leadership, good recognizability, and favourable views are crucial for both Falcon and Rustad, given the “swing factor” among right of centre voters. Each party stands to lose up to half of its current base to the other should supporters opt to switch in an effort to block the BC NDP under Premier David Eby from forming government.

As it stands today, the New Democrats lead in vote intention at 41 per cent, representing an 11-point advantage over the Conservative Party of B.C. at 30 per cent. Opposition BC United are chosen by 16 per cent of would-be voters. This represents a 50 per cent loss from the party’s 2020 election popular vote.

Link to the poll here: www.angusreid.org/