An ArmchairMayor editorial by Mel Rothenburger.
PUBLIC OPINION polls don’t have the credibility they used to have and there’s good reason for that, but the current standings are rather fascinating.
With the election campaign almost on our doorstep, the ThreeHundredEight.com website shows the NDP continuing to lead the Liberals by almost four points if the province is taken as a whole. In the Interior and the north, the numbers are basically reversed.
The NDP, however, is strongest in riding-rich metro Vancouver. When translated into seats, the NDP would be clear winners.
This doesn’t make sense to a lot of people, who perceive the Liberals to still be in the driver’s seat. The really interesting part, though, is that the Greens and B.C. Conservatives are grabbing a quarter of the votes between them.
That’s nothing short of phenomenal, especially in the case of the Conservatives, who continue to be a party of little consequence. Ask anybody to name one thing the Conservatives plan to do if elected, or name a single Conservative candidate, and they’d be stumped.
Yet as of March 26 they have 11.5 per cent of the vote, slightly lower than the well-organized Greens, who have 14.9 per cent.
Lots of things must be taken into consideration, of course. The stats just cited are a week old, for one thing, but they have held steady for quite some time.
And the Conservative numbers surely can’t hold up. They’re likely a place for people to park their prospective votes until it gets down to the crunch, when they’ll move to an actual contender.(We don’t even know how many candidates the Conservatives will field yet.)
The Greens, though, just may end up having some influence on this election. Listen to either Donovan Cavers or Dan Hines — the two Kamloops candidates — and they’re confident they will do well, maybe even win. That may be wishful thinking, but their party just may increase its presence in the Legislature by a couple of seats.
And what about poll credibility? Sure, accurate polling is harder than ever, but the ThreeHundredEight.com is an aggregation of other polls, and experience shows that analyzing several polls at the same time usual yields more accurate results.
All this doesn’t tell us who’s going to win the election, but it does suggest that if an election were held right now, the NDP would probably win, and the Greens would make gains. Which means the upcoming campaign is going to be all-important.
And the question is, can the B.C. Liberals make a comeback like they did in 2013?