BC ELECTION – Conservatives hold slight lead as race narrows in final days
David Eby (left) and Lorne Doerkson.
BC NDP must fight to lock in more uncertain, less enthusiastic supporters
By ANGUS REID INSTITUTE
October 19, 2026 – As the 2026 B.C. election campaign enters its final days, the parties and their leaders attempt the arduous multitasking assignment of balancing three priorities: expanding their base, if possible, at this late stage, solidifying support among undecided or wavering voters, and ensuring their existing supporters turn out to vote.
Amid this spinning of political plates, the non-partisan, not for profit Angus Reid Institute finds an electorate indicating a narrowing race based on vote preference, while also suggesting noticeable differences in the level of retention and certainty between to the two main parties vying to form government.
The BC Conservatives hold a narrow three-point lead over the BC NDP, 46 per cent to 43 per cent, a margin that amounts to a statistical tie after the New Democrats clawed back support following a rocky start to the campaign.
But beyond the headline vote numbers, indications suggest the incumbent New Democrats, who called the election, face a tougher task in securing their support and getting voters to the polls on Oct. 24, amid greater uncertainty and weaker voter retention than their Conservative rivals.
Three-quarters of BC Conservative voters say they’re very certain in their support (73%), compared to closer to half of BC NDP voters (54%). Further, 89 per cent of 2024 Conservatives say they’re supporting the party again, while the proportion of 2024 BC NDP voters returning to the fold drops to 74 per cent.
Add to this weaker momentum for B.C. NDP Leader David Eby, even among his own party’s supporters, compared with that of B.C. Conservative Leader Lorne Doerksen, and a key question emerges: will less enthusiastic New Democrat supporters turn out to vote, or stay home?
Link to the poll here: www.angusreid.org/
Locally here in Kamloops, as it is in a number of ridings throughout BC, the Conservatives / Liberals (or whatever they were called at the time), prospered by repeatedly sending MLA’s to Victoria. Add to the normal political right’ish/left’ish of regional voters choices, voting for the individual running, can often over ride contemporary party issues.
Here we have the incumbent Milobar who has functioned under a few political party flags (nee; flip flopped), because as we all know, the conservative party under various names has been floundering under its own mismanaged mess of controversy.
But we have before, and will likely send Peter in again,
… cause thats what voters do here.
They vote ‘conservatively rightish’ come hell or high water,
And
“Peters doing ok isn’t he?”
And
“I know his name pretty good … wasnt he Mayor here once?”
It doesnt matter if your ICBC premiums will clearly double (a thing a Conservative insider actually said on CBC radio), or if the recently released but very ambiguous Conservative costing plan, has little financial logic attached to it.
… people here will just vote for them anyway, cause thats what they do.
If I want to vote against this Conservative party because it is somewhere between a new party, a historic failure and a present day nightmare, promising costs of living increase stuff it doesnt need to, in a party full of other people like Dallas Brodie – who managed to so far sneak through unnoticed.
If I dont want to vote for that, I have to vote NDP, via a persons name I don’t recognize at all. Not only does that vote mean reinforcing and acquiescing to the Eby election opportunism with an undeserved vote, but do so in a riding that will just go Conservative … because thats what it does.
So what do I do?
– Vote for a local – now a flopped Conservative – guy, but in turn support a party no one knows, with a leader I dont trust, for a financial management plan that is either not good or simply unknown?
– Vote NDP and watch it be a waste in a deeply Conservative riding, so it be nothing but a protest vote against the Conservatives, even if an NDP vote is clearly the better financial and political stability option?
– Vote for Greens as a protest and actually throw it away?
No good answers here.
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