POLITICAL PULSE – BC Conservatives pull into tie with sagging BC United

By ANGUS REID INSTITUTE

October 19, 2023 – In just over one year, it is expected that British Columbians will head to the polls to select their next provincial government, and this time around, it seems as though there may be a new challenger for David Eby and the BC NDP.

New data from the non-profit Angus Reid Institute finds B.C. residents just as likely to say that they will support the burgeoning Conservative Party of B.C. as the opposition BC United.

The latter has seen its share of the vote projection dip considerably since opting for a name change and rebrand from the BC Liberal Party. Since making that change in April of this year, BC United has dropped nine points from 31 per cent to 22 per cent. Leader Kevin Falcon himself has recently suggested the name change may have confused some would-be supporters.

The BC Conservatives acclaimed former BC Liberal MLA John Rustad as leader earlier this year and appear to be in the midst of a surge in support. Rustad – who had been sitting as an independent since being expelled from his former party last summer – was joined in September by another party-switching colleague, Bruce Banman, giving the BC Conservatives official party status in the legislature.

While the jockeying for second place is heating up, the BC NDP continue to hold a significant advantage. More than two-in-five British Columbians (43%) say they would support the incumbent party if an election were held, doubling both closest competitors.

And while Premier David Eby continues to be well reviewed in his work, with a 51 per cent approval rating, his government faces significant criticism on top issues in the province. Residents choose the cost of living, health care, and housing affordability as the top three priorities, and offer negative assessments of the government’s action on each. Two-thirds (67%) say the BC NDP is performing poorly on health care, while four-in-five say this of both the cost of living (78%) and housing affordability (82%).

More Key Findings:

• The BC NDP lead in vote intention among all age and gender groups other than men over the age of 55. Within that group, the party trails by three points to BC United. The BC Conservative Party is most popular with men ages 35 to 54 (30% vote intention).

• Similarly, the BC NDP hold an advantage in all regions of the province. Northern B.C and the Interior are the most competitive, with 38 per cent saying they would vote for Eby’s party and 31 per cent voicing support for BC United.

• 28 per cent of residents have a favourable view of BC United leader Kevin Falcon, while 24 per cent say the same of BC Conservative leader John Rustad. BC Green Party leader Sonia Furstenau is viewed favourably by 35 per cent.

Link to the poll here: www.angusreid.org/