NATIONAL PULSE – Canadians see Joe Biden’s election as a hopeful sign
By ANGUS REID INSTITUTE
November 18, 2020 – In 2016, Canadians fretted about the implications of a Trump presidency on U.S.-Canada relations. Four years later, the prospect of Joe Biden in the White House is restoring hope.
Indeed, three-in-five Canadians (61%) say a change in administration will have a positive effect on the rapport and connectivity of these two long-time allies and trading partners.
This represents five times the number of people who said the same about the incoming Trump administration after his electoral victory.
The last four years have had an incredibly damaging impact on Canadian views of the United States overall. Today, just one-third (35%) say they view the U.S. as a valuable friend and ally, compared to 53 per cent in 2016. Canadians are also now half as likely to say that America is a positive player in international affairs (17% vs 35% in 2016).
And while many are hopeful the Biden administration will make progress in overcoming the COVID-19 pandemic – half (50%) say this – a significant segment (39%) has little faith. A similar number are equally unsure about Biden’s ability to bring the country back together. Nearly half (46%) say America is so divided, it will never fully recover or reunify in a post-Trump era.
More Key Findings:
- Few would like to see the shared border between the two nations opened anytime soon. Indeed, seven-in-ten (68%) say it should be closed until at least March.
- Canadians are overwhelmingly of the opinion that the U.S. election was fair and should not be contested. Three-quarters (75%) say this, though 41 per cent of past Conservative voters disagree.
The Conservatives appear to be a Northern version of the Republicans. I changed my vote to the Conservatives last election because I thought if enough people do that maybe Trudeau would be done before he bankrupts Canada. Will not do that again. Since none of the parties make me want to support them right now, I will vote for which ever candidate appeals the most, regardless of which party they run for.
Generally, I’m not too surprised by the results of this poll, it hits most questions on the head number wise. I did find 2 points interesting:
– ‘Canadians are overwhelmingly of the opinion that the U.S. election was fair and should not be contested. Three-quarters (75%) say this, though 41 per cent of past Conservative voters disagree.’
– 17% would have preferred a trump second term. these numbers by extrapolation being probably historically conservative voters, even though that is not specifically pointed out.
The flimsy line to draw could be to say that those Canadians that preferred a trump second term also contest the election results, and are therefore deeply embedded in the Canadian version of the MAGA trumpkin support group, and that they align their Canadian Conservative vote, directly from the trump support doctrine of soundbite noise over factual accuracy.
This is the growing part of the Canadian big C Conservative popular vote ‘base’, and the party’s future election approach will need to keep this base, by actively playing from the trump redirection manipulation handbook. They desperately need this group to keep their popular vote above double digit %.
Of course there will be healthy Conservative votes based solely on the parties reasonable historic party economic platforms alone, and leader qualities, but … a voting base … is a voting base … and this one needs to be energised using points that dont include complex and boring economic policy and jargon.
For this base, its all about the soundbite designed for those not interested in deep policy:
‘Build That Wall’
‘Lock Her Up’
‘Stop The Count’
We saw some of this from Scheer in the last election.
It doesn’t matter if it is factually correct or even reasonable, its emotionally charging, single syllable, and chant-able. We saw some of this online in our last election, I expect to see more of this in future elections in Canada, and the Conservative Party will have to climb on this bandwagon … they have to … or their seat count may become more aligned with their popular vote.