NATIONAL PULSE – ‘Remain’ continues to have big lead in Alberta referendum
Danielle Smith. (Image: Facebook)
Few believe separatist issue will die regardless of referendum result
By ANGUS REID INSTITUTE
Oct. 16, 2026 – The ‘remain’ and ‘leave’ campaigns may be wrapping up as the time nears for referendum ballots to be counted, but few Albertans believe the separatist issue will be buried regardless of how Monday’s referendum turns out.
New data from the non-profit Angus Reid Institute finds three-in-five (62%) Albertans believing “there will never be an end to the separatist movement” in the province. One-quarter (24%) disagree.
This comes as “remain a province of Canada”, otherwise known as Option 1, continues to be the choice of a majority (66%) of Albertans. For the one-third (34%) who support holding a future binding separation referendum, or Option 2, the motivation is less likely separation (37%) and more likely sending a message to Ottawa (60%).
Premier Danielle Smith has come under much criticism for her role in removing the barriers to make the separation referendum happen. A majority (61%) of Albertans say she has handled the issue of separation “poorly”.
Her challenge, regardless of the outcome of the referendum, will be to continue to hold separatists (63% of UCP voters) and stay in Canada (37% of UCP voters) supporters under the UCP’s big tent. Past UCP voters who support Option 1 are more critical of Smith’s handling of the referendum (54% poorly) than those who supported Option 2 (17%).
But those Option 2 voters take issue with Smith’s stance on future referendums should this one fail on Oct. 19. Half (52%) of UCP voters who support Option 2 disagree with Smith saying that another separation referendum will not happen while she is premier if Option 1 prevails in this referendum.
There is an appetite among UCP voters to make separatism a fixture of future politics in Alberta. Two-thirds (67%) of UCP voters who support Option 2 say they would “definitely support” (33%) or “consider” supporting (34%) a separatist provincial political party in a future provincial election. Few (4%) rule it out completely.
More Key Findings:
- One-third (36%) of Albertans believe foreign interference has had a “major effect” on the referendum campaign. ‘Remain’ voters (46% major effect) and ‘leave’ voters (57% no effect) are likely to disagree on that matter.
- Four-in-five (78%) Albertans say their “mind was already made up” on the issue of separation before the campaign even begun.
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