B.C. ELECTION – As voters lock in, Conservatives hold five-point lead
With fewer choices as OneBC & Centre BC field narrow candidate rosters, both major parties make gains
By ANGUS REID INSTITUTE
Oct. 5, 2026 – The B.C. election picture has come into sharper focus after the weekend’s nomination deadline finalized each party’s slate of candidates, and who would be running where.
New data from the non-profit Angus Reid Institute finds a narrowing race, and a more solidified electorate expressing less indecision as to where they will place their vote, and how likely they are to keep it there.
The BC Conservatives and BC NDP both grew their share of support during the early portion of the campaign; the former benefits from a smaller pool of CentreBC and One BC candidates to compete with across the province while the latter takes gains from the BC Greens. Half (48%) of leaning and decided voters say they would vote for the BC Conservatives, while 43 per cent support the BC NDP.
British Columbians have begun to solidify their choice on the ballot. Approaching half (46%) describe themselves as “very certain” as to who they will support, an increase from the one-third (35%) who said so during the first week of the campaign. However, this growth in certainty is reflected much more among BC Conservative supporters than those who would support the BC NDP. On Sept. 24, half (47%) of BC Conservative supporters said they were “very certain” of their choice, two-thirds (65%) say the same now. For the BC NDP, there are 44 per cent who say they have made up their mind, a growth of only three points from the beginning of the campaign.
BC NDP leader David Eby cited the U.S. tariffs and the threat of President Donald Trump as one of the key reasons his party needed a majority mandate when he called the election at the end of September. That issue was not among British Columbians’ top six at the start of the campaign and it has fallen even further down the list. One-in-ten (10%) say the U.S. tariffs/Donald Trump/the alcohol ban is “most important” to them when they are making their decision as to who to vote for, placing the issue far behind top concerns such as cost of living (57%), health care (42%), the economy/jobs (26%), housing affordability (24%), the deficit (24%) and public safety (24%), and even behind a group of secondary issues such as the opioid crisis (15%), climate change (14%), DRIPA (14%) and poverty (13%).
BC Conservative leader Lorne Doerkson has had little time to familiarize himself with voters, but a growing number now know enough to view him favourably or unfavourably. At the start of the campaign, two-in-five (40%) British Columbians did not have an opinion; 25 per cent say the same now. There are as many who view him positively (38%) as negatively (37%).
That is better than Eby performs on the same question. Three-in-five (58%) say they view the BC NDP leader unfavourably; one-third (36%) favourably.
On the key question of who British Columbians believe would be the best premier, Doerkson has a slight edge (36%) over Eby (33%). But there nearly as many who say neither the BC NDP nor the BC Conservative leader is the best choice to lead the province (31%).
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