NATIONAL PULSE – ‘Stay’ outweighs ‘Leave’ 2-1 on Alberta separation
ByANGUS REID INSTITUTE
Aug. 14, 2026 – Albertans on both sides of the separation debate are martialling donations and volunteers as the campaign ahead of the fall referendum heats up.
New data from the non-profit Angus Reid Institute finds those who would vote to start the process on a future binding referendum (33%) are outnumbered by a near two-to-one margin by those who prefer Alberta stay in Canada (61%). Notably, when Albertans are asked how they would vote on a simplified hypothetical separation question, fewer support actually voting to separate (30%) as would vote on Oct. 19 to have a future referendum (33%).
The gap between those figures is perhaps explained by the split motivation of the ‘leave’ camp. Two-in-five (41%) who say they would vote in support of separation in the hypothetical question say it’s more about “sending a message to Ottawa” than Alberta becoming an independent country.
Since May, when three-in-ten (30%) said they would vote leave in a hypothetical referendum question, there has been no statistically significant movement in support of separation.
While support for the Oct. 19 separation question remains the minority stance in Alberta, men older than 34 (35-54, 45%; 55+ 48%) are more likely than other demographics to want to proceed down the path of separation. Men (16%) and women (15%) aged 18 to 34 are more likely to believe Alberta should remain a province of Canada.
There does appear to be more import put on the fall referendum from the ‘leave’ than the ‘stay’ side. More than four-in-five (85%) of those who say they would vote ‘leave’ in a hypothetical simplified referendum describe the fall referendum as “very important” to the future of the province; three-in-five (60%) who would vote ‘stay’ say the same.
ArmchairMayor.ca 
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