ROTHENBURGER – Speculation underway about the mayoral ballot

AND SO IT BEGINS. Names are starting to firm up, ever so slightly, as possible contenders for the mayoralty in this fall’s civic election.

The only two for-sures at this point continue to be incumbent Mayor Reid Hamer-Jackson and Coun. Mike O’Reilly, but some others are in the rumour mill for us to ponder, thanks to a combination of word on the street and a few who might be considered “insiders.” Of course, “insiders” — some of whom actually know something and some who just think they know — are frequently proven wrong.

We won’t really be able to firm things up until hopefuls indicate their intentions, which they aren’t going to do until official-announcement day.

So I hope anyone I mention here won’t take offence, and you can take the following any way you wish but it currently looks like this. Coun. Katie Neustaeter has long been considered to have ambitions for the mayoralty, but her star has been dimmed by the various controversies she’s been involved in around the council table.

When O’Reilly got out in front of the pack, one might have assumed Neustaeter would be further discouraged. There was, after all, method to O’Reilly’s early declaration. Yet there’s talk going around that she hasn’t ruled it out.

No doubt, Hamer-Jackson will be a happy man if she goes after his job. Why? Because two of the most prominent council members — she and O’Reilly — would probably draw votes from one another, giving the current mayor a definite boost.

Others on the list are Dieter Dudy, Nancy Bepple and Christopher Foulds. Dudy has made it no secret he’d like to get back on council. The only question is whether he thinks he’d have a legitimate shot at the mayoralty, which he’s tried for twice before, losing to Peter Milobar and Hamer-Jackson.

Bepple is said to be getting some encouragement to run but she’d be better trying to hang on to her councillor seat which, in itself, is no sure thing. She’d be an unlikely mayoral candidate so we can probably cross her off the list for now.

Foulds is an interesting rumour. At least one newspaper editor I know has served as mayor in the past; could another one make it? Foulds, though, has no civic experience or current profile.

So at this point, the slate — if the prognosticators have it right — comes down to two unpopular City councillors, a twice defeated candidate, a journalist with modest name recognition, and the most controversial incumbent mayor in the City’s history. Interesting choice.

But this raises a fascinating scenario for the rest of council. Should both O’Reilly and Neustaetor run, it would create at least two vacancies for councillors. And, surely, Bill Sarai won’t be bold enough to run again. There are others on the incumbent council who should call it a day, too, but Sarai especially has no business being on council after his Tapegate scandal and should have resigned a year ago. He should certainly be too embarrassed to put his name on the ballot again.

So, let’s make that three vacancies; no maybe four, since at least one of the other incumbents may well decide being on the council hasn’t been the bed of roses he or she thought it would be.

And although incumbents usually have an advantage, being an incumbent this time could actually be a significant disadvantage. This council hasn’t exactly endeared itself to electors. So, what if at least one or two of them are defeated? Major turnover.

And that could mean a serious change of approach around the council chambers. Hopefully, one with a lot more teamwork and civility than has been the case these past three plus years.

Mel Rothenburger is a former regular contributor to CFJC-TV and CBC radio, publishes the ArmchairMayor.ca opinion website, and is a recipient of the Jack Webster Foundation Lifetime Achievement Award, and a Webster Foundation Commentator of the Year finalist. He has served as mayor of Kamloops, school board chair and TNRD director, and is a retired daily newspaper editor.  He can be reached at mrothenburger@armchairmayor.ca.