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NATIONAL PULSE – Vote switchers say Liberal surge driven by Carney, Trump

(Image: Screenshot, CPAC)

Vote commitment among new Liberals far less solid than those who stuck with party through lows of 2024


By ANGUS REID INSTITUTE

March 27, 2025 – The slings and arrows of outrageous fortune suffered by the NDP and Conservative Party of Canada in recent months have reversed the fortunes of the Liberal Party – at least for now – leaving many to wonder how we got here.

After leading comfortably in the polls for the better part of two years, the Conservative Party of Canada now faces an upward battle to regain even ground against new Prime Minister Mark Carney and his Liberals.

What happened?

New data from the non-profit Angus Reid Institute provide some answers to these questions. Asked what their main reasons have been, voters who have switched to the Liberals since the beginning of the year, more than half (56%) say they are motivated by the new leader, Carney, about the same number who also say U.S. President Donald Trump’s threats have pushed them to support the incumbents. Three-in-10 (30%) say they believe the Liberals are the best way to prevent a Conservative government and this is one of the driving factors.

Where did they come from?

Among these “switchers” the largest group say they were formerly supporting the NDP (35%) while slightly fewer have jumped from the CPC (29%). A significant portion (16%) were undecided, while importantly, 12 per cent were Bloc Québécois voters, and have improved the Liberals chances in Quebec by their decision to swap.

And why?

One of the motivating factors is the elevated concern over U.S. relations and the threat of tariffs. Among those who have switched to the Liberals and those who supported the party before this year, more than half say that this issue is a top one for them, personally. This is approximately double the level of concern for that issue among non-Liberal supporters.

More Key Findings:

  • The contending leaders for the position of prime minister are not well-viewed by now-Liberal switchers. Nine-in-10 view CPC leader Pierre Poilievre unfavourably (90%) while half (52%) say this of NDP leader Jagmeet Singh.
  • Only half of those who have switched to the Liberals since the beginning of the year say they are very committed (49%). Among those who already supported the party coming into the year the level of firm commitment rises to seven-in-10 (71%).

Link to the poll here: www.angusreid.org/

Download .PDF with detailed tables, graphs and methodology.

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4 Comments on NATIONAL PULSE – Vote switchers say Liberal surge driven by Carney, Trump

  1. Unknown's avatar Early Bruce // March 28, 2025 at 8:05 AM // Reply

    Mark Carney appears to have plagiarised several sections of his doctoral thesis as well.

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  2. Unknown's avatar Bill Hadgkiss // March 27, 2025 at 1:38 PM // Reply

    from “NDP VS CARNY”, Please research CARNY’s history.

    A 2023 report from the CENTER for INTERNATIONAL CORPORATE TAX ACCOUNTABILITY and RESEARCH called Brookfield, Canada’s top tax Dodger in 2021. BROOKFIELD ASSET MANAGEMENT dodged a jaw-dropping $6.5 billion all on its own. According to Canadians for Tax Fairness in 2021 alone, Canada lost $30 billion in corporate tax revenue to Offshore Havens. This means that ONE in FIVE of all the tax dollars corporations diverted from the Canadian public came from Brookfield alone. 

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  3. Unknown's avatar Afternoon Bruce // March 27, 2025 at 12:33 PM // Reply

    The leader of the NDP signed a devil’s bargain when he agreed to become the flaccid third leg propping up the Liberal party. If the effective difference between your party and another is now down to the colour orange, people will be reticent to split the vote.

    I can see no legitimate reason for someone to vote NDP outside of stubborn brand loyalty, although Jagmeet is the most likeable of the leadership candidates.

    Quite laughable to think Carney will be any different than the 10 years that precedes him. What a depressing roster. Canada is in for another lost decade and this feels again like a “best of the worst” election.

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