UKRAINE WAR – What’s so special about those minerals? A geologist explains

By MUNIRA RAJI
University of Plymouth

UKRAINE’S MINERALS have become central to global geopolitics, with the U.S. president, Donald Trump, seeking a deal with Ukraine’s president Volodymyr Zelensky to access them. But what are these minerals exactly and why are they so sought after?

Ukraine is often recognised for its vast agricultural lands and industrial heritage, but beneath its surface lies one of the world’s most remarkable geological formations, the “Ukrainian Shield”.

This massive, exposed crystalline rock formed over 2.5 billion years ago, stretches across much of Ukraine. It represents one of Earth’s oldest and most stable continental blocks. The formation has undergone multiple episodes of mountain building, the formation and movement of magma and other change throughout time.

These geological processes created favourable geological conditions for forming several mineral deposits including lithium, graphite, manganese, titanium and rare earth elements. All these are now critical for modern industries and the global green energy transition.

Ukraine has deposits containing 22 of 34 critical minerals identified by the European Union as essential for energy security. This positions Ukraine among the world’s most resource-rich nations.

International race

As the world races to decarbonise, demand for critical minerals is skyrocketing. Electric vehicles, wind turbines, solar panels and energy storage systems all require lithium, cobalt and rare Earth elements which Ukraine has in abundance.

The price of lithium has surged from US$1,500 (£1,164) per ton in the 1990s to around $20,000 per ton in recent years. Demand is expected to increase nearly 40-fold by 2040.

According to the International Energy Agency, the number of electric vehicles is projected to exceed 125 million by 2030. Similar growth is expected for other battery metals. Each electric vehicle requires significantly more lithium than conventional electronics. For example, a Tesla Model S battery requires approximately 63kg of high-purity lithium.

Ukraine has three major lithium deposits. These include Shevchenkivske in the Donetsk region as well as Polokhivske and Stankuvatske in the centrally located Kirovograd region – all within the Ukrainian Shield. Despite the significant mineral potential, many of Ukraine’s mineral deposits have remained largely unexplored due to the war with Russia, which has disrupted mining operations and damaged infrastructure.

The Shevchenkivske lithium deposit contains high concentrations of spodumene — the primary lithium-bearing mineral used in battery production. Its reserve is estimated as 13.8 million tonnes of lithium ores. That said, extracting it requires an estimated US$10–20 million in exploration investment before mining can begin.

Meanwhile, the Polokhivske deposit at is approximately 270 thousand tons of lithium is considered one of the best lithium sites in Europe. That’s because of its favourable geological conditions, making extraction more economically viable.

But lithium represents just one element of Ukraine’s mineral resources. According to the US geological survey, Ukraine ranks globally as the third-largest producer of the mineral rutile – making up 15.7% of world’s total output. It is the sixth-largest producer of iron ore (3.2% of total output) and titanium (5.8%), as well as the seventh-largest producer of manganese ore (3.1%).

Ukraine also has Europe’s largest uranium reserves, crucial for nuclear power and weapons. It boasts significant deposits of rare earth elements, including neodymium and dysprosium, which are needed for manufacturing everything from smartphones to wind turbines and electric motors.

In addition, Ukraine is home to the world’s largest proven reserves of manganese ores. There’s approximately 2.4 billion tonnes of it concentrated primarily in the Nikopol Basin on the southern slope of the Ukrainian Shield.

The strategic significance of Ukraine’s minerals has gained recognition in international diplomacy. Recent bilateral negotiations between Ukraine and the US highlight the geopolitical importance of these resources.

A proposed minerals deal would involve Ukraine contributing 50% of future proceeds from state-owned mineral resources, oil and gas and other extractable materials to a reconstruction investment fund for Ukraine’s post-war rebuilding. The fund would be jointly managed by Kyiv and Washington.

What about US’s own minerals?

The U.S.’s interest in Ukrainian minerals reflects a broader geopolitical concern over increasing demand, volatile price movements and supply chain vulnerabilities.

While the U.S. has many of the same critical minerals as Ukraine, it has historically outsourced mining and refining due to environmental regulations, high labour costs and more attractive foreign markets.

This has led to a reliance on imports, particularly from China, which dominates critical mineral production and processing. Getting access to Ukraine’s minerals in exchange for military protection means the U..S can avoid having to buy these minerals from China.

The U.S. federal strategy in fact states it will prioritise diversification through mineral security partnerships aiming to establish a more stable and resilient supply chain.

The U.S.’s critical minerals are distributed across various geological provinces including the Appalachian Mountains, the Cordilleran Belt and the Precambrian Shield exposed in parts of the midwest.

While the U.S. has developed substantial lithium resources, particularly in Nevada’s Clayton Valley and North Carolina’s Kings Mountain, much of its current lithium production comes from “brine operations”. This is the extraction from salt solutions, such as seawater or saline lakes, which can be more expensive than hard-rock mining.

The global shift toward green energy and electric transportation is accelerating, and minerals are at the heart of this transition. Around 80% of the lithium produced globally is used for battery production. Major automakers are investing billions in electric vehicle production, driving unprecedented demand for the minerals that power this technology.

Ukraine’s mineral wealth positions it as a potential leader in the clean energy revolution. Once stability returns, Ukraine will have a golden opportunity to reshape the global supply chain for critical minerals. Even with a 50% allocation to the US, Ukraine would still be able to fund domestic infrastructure, industry growth, jobs and economic recovery.

Munira Raji, Research Fellow of Geology, University of Plymouth. This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.