JOHNSON – How Trump got played by Canada and Mexico on tariff threat

SURE, OK.

He threw the threat of tariffs at us, announced them, we retaliated … la, la, la.

Now he says ‘a deal has been reached’, and we get a 30-day reprieve.  How nice of him /s (otherwise known as /slash s = sarcasm).

If we take another look at these events, from a different perspective:

It is pretty clear that he didn’t win here … he backed down.  It’s pretty clear he didn’t actually have an end game, or any kind of 4D chess manoeuvre, he just went off half cocked about Canada, fentanyl and immigration and trade … and didn’t really have a step two.

Even his favourite media outlet Fox News seems to be saying ‘what was the point with that?’

Let’s look at what Mexico and Canada actually announced,
… announcements that seems to be what called the Trumpian bulldog off.

Trump boasts he got Mexico’s President Sheinbaum to commit to stationing 10,000 troops at their border.  Apparently, he didn’t know that Mexico already has 15,000 troops deployed there, and has for a long time.  In other words, she just committed to what she’s already committed to.

What she won was an agreement for the U.S. to ‘work to stop the trafficking of high-powered weapons into Mexico’.  Something Mexico didn’t have before.  In short, an American commitment to spend American dollars to stop guns moving south.

Canada announced a short list:
– Implementation of a $1.3 billion border plan – choppers, tech and personnel.
– Appoint a Fentanyl Czar,
– List cartels as terrorists,
… and a laundry list of nice sounding nothingness; enhanced coordination with U.S. partners, Canada/U.S. strike force, organized crime, money laundering … yada, yada, yada.

In return, Canada also got the same deal as Mexico regarding guns entering our country from the U.S.. ie; Money and resources.

What Trump didn’t notice, is that Canada had already announced the very same $1.3 billion plan on Dec. 17, 2024, in conjunction with the previous Biden administration.

Citation:

https://www.canada.ca/en/public-safety-canada/news/2024/12/government-of-canada-announces-its-plan-to-strengthen-border-security-and-our-immigration-system.html

Readers who have someone in their life who is on the MAGA side of things, should show them that link.

There is nothing new, with any substance, in what was agreed this week.

Even Fox News noticed that one; “What did WE get here? … a drug czar … what’s that? A guy with some press time, a rolodex and a phone … and we have to pay for increased enforcement at both borders for guns?”

All Canada has to do is fly a couple helicopters around for a month, and the tariff threat hopefully just goes away.

The rest of North America seems to have realized that this entire exercise was nothing but a front row view to the show where the Pumpkin Spice Palpatine made a complete joke out of himself.  Instead of making “the biggest deal” … he did nothing but make Canada and Mexico re-announce what we were both actually doing already.

In short — he got played.

On another side of the coin … and to step into slightly cursive phrasing … he pissed us off.

Today, I heard stories of shoppers at the quilting store in Armstrong B.C. questioning the owner of the store on Facebook about the origin of the material on sale, not wanting to accidentally buy American made material.

I saw a sign at a liquor store … sitting on the American Whiskey shelf, that said, “Buy Canadian” … with an arrow to Canadian Whiskey.  Will our local and national grocery chains start labelling products with country of origin, in the produce department?

I heard someone on the radio say that Hunts ketchup is actually fine, choosing to avoid Heinz.

In our house we just had a family get together this weekend, and everyone visiting had already independently decided to look more carefully at the origin of products, and focus on Canadian, European, South American, and Asian products instead of the default American option.

I’ve heard a bunch of people say they were changing travel plans … no longer going to the U.S., and traveling abroad or around Canada instead.  We know a snowbirder who winters in Arizona who came home early;  Just not comfortable being down there anymore, considering selling and rethinking retirement plans.

The likely reality is that all this may be a short-term frustration and angst driven market switch, and in the long term … people will be people and whatever is cheaper or tasty will reign supreme again … but what if it isn’t?  What if it stuck?

Beyond local kitchen pantries, and amid the larger scale commercial and industrial world in Canada, changes may also be in the works, and these ones may stick.  Due to the threat of tariffs, many manufacturers in Canada worked hard to find overseas buyers for their products.

I heard an interview with the boss of a manufacturing business today say that they didn’t see the need to rejig their sales back to American buyers; “We just don’t feel the need to reinforce a trade relationship like that anymore, why strengthen the North American trade market, if we aren’t treated as equal partners?”

The idea of Canada diversifying its customer base beyond America has been a talking point for decades.  One day, will we look back at this moment when we did just that?

Maybe, this series of events just pushed us all over the edge far enough to actually act on this simple … and smart idea.  The idea of so much of our economy to be wrapped around one partner is not a good rainy-day plan, we knew that and now we have the final key to the puzzle … motivation.

We have a massive industrial complex that mines and sells iron and steel, aluminum, gold, potash, copper … and a long list of industrial minerals; antimony, bismuth, caesium, chromium, cobalt, fluorspar, niobium, tellurium, and uranium.

None of these minerals exist in any volume in America … and they need them, badly.

Maybe we will just sell them somewhere else.  It’s surprising how much China wants cobalt, Chile wants caesium and Europe needs niobium.

“Shorry, don’t have any of that in right now, check back next month, maybe thar bud?” … may be our auto-America empty shelf response.

This is what happens when you piss off Canada as a whole.

We will happily meander around for centuries as “your bff forever, there dude”.  But push us way too far and we lose our nice. We would rather take our toys and stuff … and go buy and sell somewhere else.

It’s just not worth the hassle.

Soo, go ahead America and elect for yourself a Coppertone Coward, a Tangerine Tyrant, a Clemintine Caligula (I got lots more of those) … but when he misbehaves this poorly … and damages our relationship this badly for no other reason than to satisfy his Melon Felon Misinformation MAGA Squad (told ya), we are out … and it’s your fault, you will feel some pain, even if it’s just a little.

Now, the Mango Mussolini may suddenly realize he was taken so easily by Canada and Mexico, or maybe he will just be in the wrong mood, and slam us with the tariffs in 30 days anyway.

Does it even matter anymore?

Obviously, it will matter very much to our short-term economy but, more importantly, that feeling of comradeship we have had with our southern neighbours for so long … will be gone.

We just won’t care anymore.

David Johnson is a Kamloops resident, community volunteer and self described maven of all things Canadian.