JOHNSON – Canada’s military and its plan to buy remote operated drones

THE CANADIAN GOVERNMENT confirmed plans last month to spend $2.49 billion on 11 remotely piloted drone aircraft, the same type that we have seen the Americans operate.

The Canadian contract with San Diego-based General Atomics Aeronautical Systems is for its MQ-9B SkyGuardian, a single-engine turboprop powered Remote Piloted Aircraft System (RPAS), was announced at the Royal Canadian Air Force (RCAF) bases where the drones will be stationed: Comox, B.C., and Greenwood, NS.

This is a direct commercial sale contract with General Atomics and some additional Canada specific components will be acquired; more about that later.

In addition to the aircraft, the purchase includes six mobile ground control stations, a new permanent ground control centre with 160 new personnel likely based in Ottawa.  In addition, two new aircraft hangers as well as weapons and training are included in the deal. Comox is expected to receive 25 additional personnel, Greenwood 55.

The personnel, aircraft and support infrastructure are expected to be fully operational by 2033 after initial aircraft delivery in 2028.

The government’s original plan was to have the drones operational by 2025 but the need for high-latitude Arctic missions in extreme conditions, which would involve other fixed-wing aircraft and satellites, required integration of very specific and unusual components on the SkyGuardians, including the WESCAM MX-20 electro-optical/infrared sensor.

This is an important addition, as some of these components are needed to allow these drones to see in the north.  In addition other components designed to coordinate properly with other assets are included.

Even though the military has asked for this level of drone equipment for more than 10 years now, on the surface it seems to appear that last year’s agreement to purchase the American F-35 fighter aircraft … with its lack of northern operational capabilities and inability to use any soft pack runway … may have rekindled the idea to look at these drones, to do this much needed and very Canadian problem of northern sovereignty defence and surveillance work.

If this is the case … it’s not bad thinking, but in a potential future of hardware push and shove, one might think we might need a pilot with a brain and a trigger button on the actual scene, instead of a drone with its pilot in Ottawa tasked with diffusing a Russian antagonizing fly-by threat.

To add to the concern, 10 years from today is a long time to wait to get this operational.  Let’s just hope there is no addendum in the agreement that allows the price to increase for any reason over that decade.

These are pricey drones, but not in comparison to the F-35.

Back of the napkin math shows that with all rolled together, the drone cost for 11 units (including all the accoutrements, infrastructure and people) sits at over $227 million per unit … when the 88 F-35’s (with its expensive all-in costs taken into consideration) equals almost $840 million per unit. Obviously both aircraft are individually much less expensive than this, but it is the full program outlay costs that makes them fly.

With that in mind, i’ts reasonable to say that the drone,
… might be a good deal if it can do the job.

The SkyGuardian drone mission radius is up to 1,850 kilometres and capable of staying aloft for as long as 34 hours, which will suit the vast expanse of the north.  Even though the drone will not need to carry weapons in domestic airspace, they can be armed with an array of munitions for specific overseas missions.

This deal does include, via the American government: $417 million for 219 Hellfire II precision-strike missiles and 12 Mk82 500-lb. general purpose bombs. The SkyGuardian comes with eight wing hardpoints and one on its centreline giving it a maximum external payload capacity of nearly 2.16 tonnes.

The additional desire for these drones is for overseas operations where their hyper advanced surveillance and weapon capabilities would definitely be an asset to the Canadian forces fighting and working abroad in hot spots.  These would have served our forces well in Afghanistan.

The drone deal follows the federal government’s Nov. 30 announcement to purchase up to 16 P-8A Poseidon aircraft for the RCAF. At an estimated cost of $10.4 billion, the P-8A replaces Canada’s primary maritime patrol aircraft, the CP-140 Aurora, which has been in service for more than 40 years.

In addition to general surveillance and SAR work in two of the largest coastal and offshore coverage regions in the world, the new platform is expected to support civilian operations such as wildfire and flood responses.

The federal government expects the drone program to generate “hundreds of jobs across the country and millions in gross domestic product.” DND expanded on that in a statement that the project has the potential to create nearly 700 jobs annually for Canadian industry while contributing $97 million annually to GDP.

Although its common for large federal government procurements to twist purchase costs into domestic economic benefits, a $97 million downstream GDP benefit, from a $2.5 billion initial purchase isn’t a very satisfying coefficient.

Ohh … about the F-35.

A few months ago, the Parliamentary Budget Office completed its independent analysis of the F-35 purchase deal announced in January 2023.  Yves Giroux said the procurement project is “broadly in line” with the government’s own estimates, which announced the cost to be around $70 billion.

The report estimated that Canada will pay $73.9 billion to buy, fly and maintain its F-35 jets.  Giroux warned that a one-year delay in the program would add about $400 million in acquisition phase costs, and a three-year delay would add up to $1.1 billion.

See also:  JOHNSON – Is the F35 fighter jet the right decision for Canada?

Adding the drone program and the Poseidon aircraft to the feds’ list of military purchases lately, and it does seem like the government is trying to get on top of the shortfalls and the ancient leftovers of previous governments’ inabilities to work on the defence procurement portfolio.

It is likely that if asked … and heard beyond the rhetoric … these purchases would probably be quietly supported across the aisle and be mostly bipartisan.

In addition, we haven’t seen any projected calculations yet regarding how all these expensive purchases will affect Canada’s requirement to spend two per cent of GDP as a member of NATO.  One would think that $88 billion worth of just airplanes might bump up Canada’s spending levels beyond todays 1.38 per cent of GDP.

What we won’t know, for about a decade, is if any of these purchases will in reality cost what we are being told now that it should … or if any of this equipment will be of any use, in the future world they will find themselves in.

Today … it’s a bit of a coin toss.

David Johnson is a Kamloops resident, community volunteer and self described maven of all things Canadian.