NATIONAL PULSE – Conservatives lead Liberals but not in major urban centres
By ANGUS REID INSTITUTE
March 30, 2023 – Members of the Liberal government will embark on a cross-country tour to promote the benefits of its new budget, released on March 28, which includes new supports for low- and modest-income families in the form of GST and grocery rebates, and expanded dental coverage. As Liberals meet with constituent communities from coast-to-coast, they do so with ground to gain in current vote intention, and support to re-gain in some major urban spaces.
Analysis from the non-profit Angus Reid Institute finds the Conservative Party theoretically on a path to forming government if an election were held soon. A persistent hurdle, however, continues to be the party’s lack of resonance in Toronto, Montreal and Vancouver.
The opposition CPC hold a six-point lead in vote intention nationally. But in those three largest metropolitan centres in the country, the Liberals maintain a significant advantage. Success in these spaces has been of utmost importance in propelling the Liberals to governance.
In the GTA, two-in-five say they would support the Liberals if an election were held – 40 per cent in the 905 and 43 per cent in the 416. Both of these represent a significant drop in support compared to 2021 when 52 per cent supported the party in the Toronto core and 48 per cent did so in the 905.
While the Liberals are down, the CPC is not necessarily up. The opposition has gained just two points in the 416 and three in the 905, both within margin of error for these sub-regions. New Democrats gain the most in these new data, though much of that party’s support is contingent on less reliable voters younger than 35.
Quebec, too, is a source of some Liberal chagrin and CPC frustration. The LPC hold an advantage in Montreal, but nowhere else there. Current vote intention for the Liberals in Greater Montreal, like much of the country, is down. Conversely, the CPC has made no significant gains in Quebec overall (+2).
Link to the poll here: www.angusreid.org/
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