NATIONAL PULSE – Conservatives open seven-point lead with Poilievre
By ANGUS REID INSTITUTE
September 27, 2022 – The ascendance of Pierre Poilievre as leader of the Conservatives is giving his party an advantage in vote intent over the Liberals not seen in more than three years.
Since the 2019 election, the two parties have been locked in what has mostly amounted to a statistical tie in national vote intention – generally driven by the rise and fall of the fortunes of the Trudeau government in the moment rather than momentum for the Conservatives.
Now the opposition party – which last month elected its third leader in as many years – is pulling together a right-of-centre base that includes not only its own supporters but those who turned out for the People’s Party in the 2021 general election.
The result is now a seven-point lead in vote intention for the Conservatives, according to new data from the non-profit Angus Reid Institute. Three-quarters of those who supported the PPC in the last federal election (5% of Canadians voted for the PPC) say they would now support the CPC.
Overall, three-in-ten Canadians say they would vote Liberal, while one-in-five would vote for the NDP.
In terms of leadership, the Liberals’ Justin Trudeau and Poilievre have strengths and weaknesses they will need to buttress or overcome. Poilievre is seen as best to lead on a number of key issues including managing the federal deficit, economic growth, and the cost of living.
Meanwhile, Trudeau is the preferred choice to steward Canada’s place on the world stage, the nation’s social safety net, climate change policy, and health care.
In terms of the personal appeal of Trudeau and Poilievre, there is an emerging gender dynamic at play. Women are far more likely to approve of Trudeau’s performance (47% vs 32%).
When asked about Poilievre, 45 per cent of men view him favourably, compared to just 26 per cent of women. This extends to vote intention. The CPC is the top choice among all male age groups and no female age groups. Women younger than 35 prefer the NDP, while those older than 34 prefer the Liberals.
More Key Findings:
- Three-in-five believe cost of living is a top issue facing Canada, outpacing health care (45%), climate change (28%), housing affordability (27%) and the economy more broadly (21%).
- The last time the gap in vote intent between the CPC and Liberals was this large in ARI tracking was 2019.
- Among decided and leaning voters, nearly half (47%) of men say they intend to vote CPC if an election were held today. Support for the CPC is much lower among women: 28 per cent.
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