Liberal love-in? Opposition leaders must overcome significant unknown factor among their own supporters
By ANGUS REID INSTITUTE
October 16, 2018 – As stopwatches are set in the count down to an expected federal election 12 months from now, the latest public opinion survey from the Angus Reid Institute finds more Canadians say they may be open to voting for the Conservative Party of Canada (CPC), but it is the Liberal vote universe that is most buoyant about the performance of its leader, Justin Trudeau.
In canvassing the views of Canadians who say they’ll definitely, likely or maybe vote for the three main parties currently represented in the House of Commons, several themes emerge – revealing the strengths, weaknesses, advantages and hurdles each party leader faces in the year ahead.
While Trudeau and CPC leader Andrew Scheer are seen among their potential bases as equally likely to be able to achieve electoral success in the next election – it is Scheer – along with the New Democratic Party’s Jagmeet Singh, who must also define themselves to the electorate they court.
Further, Singh faces the additional task of igniting excitement and confidence, even among locked-in NDP voters who profess an allegiance to the party, but are ambivalent about their leader or his chances at the ballot box next year.
More Key Findings:
- Most potential CPC voters (60%) say Andrew Scheer is setting the party up to win more seats in 2019; the same number of potential Liberal voters (61%) credit Trudeau with the same. By contrast, half as many potential New Democrats (34%) are confident about Singh’s ability to grow his party’s seat count next year
- Scheer and Singh have little time to lose defining themselves to their own bases: nearly one-third (30%) of potential CPC voters say they don’t know enough about Scheer to describe him, and this number grows to nearly half (46%) of potential NDP voters asked to describe Singh
- Trudeau’s support for the TransMountain appears to appeal to less certain Liberal voters, providing a hint on which issues resonate across party lines. For Scheer, it is his stance on border security, and for Singh, it is the promise of universal Pharmacare