An independent election poll shows BC Liberal candidate Peter Milobar ahead in the Kamloops-North Thompson riding.
The poll, done by Justason Market Intelligence and commissioned by the Kamloops Voters Society, also shows that the doctor shortage is the top election issue in the riding. Results were released today (April 28, 2017).
A total of 239 eligible voters were randomly surveyed between April 21 and 24. The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 6.9 percentage points 19 times out of 20.
Among decided voters, Milobar has a substantial lead of 47 per cent compared to 31 per cent for BC NDP candidate Barb Nederpel, 15 per cent for Dan Himes of the BC Green Party, and eight per cent for Peter Kerek of the Communist Party of B.C.
Milobar has the strongest support among men, with 52 per cent of decided male voters, while Nederpel is a slight favourite among women, with 42 per cent compared to 40 per cent for Milobar.
The lack of family physicians or doctors was identified by 39 per cent as the top election issue, with 31 per cent saying jobs and the economy are number one. Other issues such as the environment and affordable housing were also mentioned.
Among those who said the doctor shortage is the top issue, 44 per cent said they support Nederpel, compared to 36 per cent for Milobar. When it comes to jobs and the economy, 70 per cent believe the Liberals and Milobar would do the best job, with the remainder split among the other candidates.
Demographically, women are twice as likely as men to support the BC NDP (42 per cent vs 21 per cent men who would vote BC NDP). Support for BC Green candidates is drawn more from rural voters than urban, according to the poll.
The complete report from Justason to the Kamloops Voters Society follows:
We are pleased to provide this written outline of the findings of a poll conducted April 21 through 24 in the British Columbia provincial electoral riding of Kamloops-North Thompson.
Justason Market Intelligence surveyed a stratified random sample of 239 residents who are eligible to vote in the provincial electoral riding of Kamloops-North Thompson. Fielding was completed by means of touchtone response telephone interviews. Random digit dialling (RDD) allowed for the inclusion of listed and unlisted landline and mobile phone numbers. Final data were weighted to match the most recently available age and gender statistics for the area (per 2011 Canadian census).
The final weighted sample of 200 reports margin of error of ±6.9 percentage points 19 in 20 times the study is repeated. The base of 173 decided voters reports margin of error of ±7.5 percentage points 19 in 20 times.
Among a list of election issues, riding residents identify lack of family physicians or doctors as their top election issue, followed closely by jobs and the economy.
- Residents aged 65 and older (49%);
- Those residing within the City of Kamloops (42% vs 22% among those in more rural partsof the riding);
- BC NDP supporters (53% vs 28% and 29% among BC Liberal and BC Green supporters)Those more likely to identify jobs and the economy as their top issue include:
- Residents aged 45 to 64 years (38%); and
- BC Liberal supporters (51% vs 13% and 14% among BC NDP and BC Green supporters) Environment is identified as a top election issue by 32% of BC Green supporters. By comparison,5% or fewer BC Liberal and BC NDP supporters cite environment as their top election concern.
In the upcoming May 9 election, the plurality decided voters will support the BC Liberals’ Peter Milobar (47%). A distant second is the BC NDP’s Barb Nederpel (31%) and, in third position, the BC Green Party’s Dan Hines (15%).
Decided voters BC Liberals, Peter Milobar 47% BC NDP, Barb Nederpel 31% BC Green Party, Dan Hines 15% Communist Party of BC 8%
How WOMEN would vote
BC NDP, Barb Nederpel 42% BC Liberals, Peter Milobar 40% BC Green Party, Dan Hines 16% Communist Party of BC 3%
How MEN would vote
BC Liberals, Peter Milobar 52% BC NDP, Barb Nederpel 21% BC Green Party, Dan Hines 14% Communist Party of BC 13%
Voter intention among those whose top election issue is
JOBS AND THE ECONOMY:
BC Liberals, Peter Milobar 70% BC NDP, Barb Nederpel 12% Communist Party of BC 12% BC Green Party, Dan Hines 6%
Demographically, support for the BC Liberals is highest among decided voters who are:
- Men (52%* vs 40% among women)
- Voters 45 years and older:o 18 to 44 years: 31% o 45 to 64 years: 57% o 65+ years: 52%BC NDP support: If an election were held only among residents concerned about the lack of doctors, the BC NDP would have the edge. Voter intention among those whose top election issue isLACK OF DOCTORS:BC NDP, Barb Nederpel 44% BC Liberals, Peter Milobar 36% BC Green Party, Dan Hines 12% Communist Party of BC 8%Demographically, women are twice as likely as men to support the BC NDP (42% vs 21% men who would vote BC NDP).BC Green Party support: Support for the BC Green candidate is drawn more from rural voters (29% versus 12% among urban voters)
STRENGTH OF SUPPORT
Two-thirds (66%) of decided voters describe themselves as strong supporters of their candidate and party. Nearly three-in-ten (28%) may change their vote.
The BC Liberals and BC NDP are inclined to garner “strong” support for their party and candidate—75% and 74% voting for these parties are strong supporters. On the other hand, the BC Green Party candidate has garnered strong support from just one-third of Green voters (36%). Fully half (50%) of current Green party votes are potentially mobile.
Support strength among
BC LIBERAL VOTERS
Strong supporter 75% May change vote 21% Unsure 4%
Support strength among
BC NDP VOTERS
Strong supporter 74% May change vote 26% Unsure 1%
Support strength among
BC GREEN VOTERS
Strong supporter 36% May change vote 50% Unsure 14%
The BC Green party candidate, Dan Hines, emerges as the second choice for the largest number of voters in this riding.
BC Green Party, Dan Hines 38% BC Liberals, Peter Milobar 21% BC NDP, Barb Nederpel 16% Communist Party of BC 5% Not sure 20%
Nearly three-in-ten (28%) of BC Liberal supporters select BC Greens as their second choice. Just 11% would choose the BC NDP.
An even higher proportion (58%) of BC NDP voters mark BC Green as their second choice, far more than would select the BC Liberals as their second choice.
*Denotes a directional difference that may prove statistically significant at a larger sample size.