Advertisements
LATEST

ELECTION – Poll shows Milobar ahead, doctor shortage biggest issue

Peter Milobar. (ArmchairMayor file photo)

An independent election poll shows BC Liberal candidate Peter Milobar ahead in the Kamloops-North Thompson riding.

The poll, done by Justason Market Intelligence and commissioned by the Kamloops Voters Society, also shows that the doctor shortage is the top election issue in the riding. Results were released today (April 28, 2017).

A total of 239 eligible voters were randomly surveyed between April 21 and 24. The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 6.9 percentage points 19 times out of 20.

Among decided voters, Milobar has a substantial lead of 47 per cent compared to 31 per cent for BC NDP candidate Barb Nederpel, 15 per cent for Dan Himes of the BC Green Party, and eight per cent for Peter Kerek of the Communist Party of B.C.

Milobar has the strongest support among men, with 52 per cent of decided male voters, while Nederpel is a slight favourite among women, with 42 per cent compared to 40 per cent for Milobar.

The lack of family physicians or doctors was identified by 39 per cent as the top election issue, with 31 per cent saying jobs and the economy are number one. Other issues such as the environment and affordable housing were also mentioned.

Among those who said the doctor shortage is the top issue, 44 per cent said they support Nederpel, compared to 36 per cent for Milobar. When it comes to jobs and the economy, 70 per cent believe the Liberals and Milobar would do the best job, with the remainder split among the other candidates.

Demographically, women are twice as likely as men to support the BC NDP (42 per cent vs 21 per cent men who would vote BC NDP). Support for BC Green candidates is drawn more from rural voters than urban, according to the poll.

The complete report from Justason to the Kamloops Voters Society follows:

MEMORANDUM

We are pleased to provide this written outline of the findings of a poll conducted April 21 through 24 in the British Columbia provincial electoral riding of Kamloops-North Thompson.

METHODOLOGY

Justason Market Intelligence surveyed a stratified random sample of 239 residents who are eligible to vote in the provincial electoral riding of Kamloops-North Thompson. Fielding was completed by means of touchtone response telephone interviews. Random digit dialling (RDD) allowed for the inclusion of listed and unlisted landline and mobile phone numbers. Final data were weighted to match the most recently available age and gender statistics for the area (per 2011 Canadian census).

The final weighted sample of 200 reports margin of error of ±6.9 percentage points 19 in 20 times the study is repeated. The base of 173 decided voters reports margin of error of ±7.5 percentage points 19 in 20 times.

RESULTS

ELECTION ISSUES

Among a list of election issues, riding residents identify lack of family physicians or doctors as their top election issue, followed closely by jobs and the economy.

Groups more likely to identify lack of physicians as their top election issue include:
  • Residents aged 65 and older (49%);
  • Those residing within the City of Kamloops (42% vs 22% among those in more rural partsof the riding);
  • BC NDP supporters (53% vs 28% and 29% among BC Liberal and BC Green supporters)Those more likely to identify jobs and the economy as their top issue include:
    • Residents aged 45 to 64 years (38%); and
    • BC Liberal supporters (51% vs 13% and 14% among BC NDP and BC Green supporters) Environment is identified as a top election issue by 32% of BC Green supporters. By comparison,5% or fewer BC Liberal and BC NDP supporters cite environment as their top election concern.

PARTY SUPPORT

In the upcoming May 9 election, the plurality decided voters will support the BC Liberals’ Peter Milobar (47%). A distant second is the BC NDP’s Barb Nederpel (31%) and, in third position, the BC Green Party’s Dan Hines (15%).

Decided voters BC Liberals, Peter Milobar 47% BC NDP, Barb Nederpel 31% BC Green Party, Dan Hines 15% Communist Party of BC 8%

How WOMEN would vote

BC NDP, Barb Nederpel 42% BC Liberals, Peter Milobar 40% BC Green Party, Dan Hines 16% Communist Party of BC 3%

How MEN would vote

BC Liberals, Peter Milobar 52% BC NDP, Barb Nederpel 21% BC Green Party, Dan Hines 14% Communist Party of BC 13%

BC Liberal support: Support for the BC Liberals is highest among those reporting jobs and the economy their top election issue.

Voter intention among those whose top election issue is

JOBS AND THE ECONOMY:

BC Liberals, Peter Milobar 70% BC NDP, Barb Nederpel 12% Communist Party of BC 12% BC Green Party, Dan Hines 6%

Demographically, support for the BC Liberals is highest among decided voters who are:

    • Men (52%* vs 40% among women)
    • Voters 45 years and older:o 18 to 44 years: 31% o 45 to 64 years: 57% o 65+ years: 52%BC NDP support: If an election were held only among residents concerned about the lack of doctors, the BC NDP would have the edge. Voter intention among those whose top election issue isLACK OF DOCTORS:BC NDP, Barb Nederpel 44% BC Liberals, Peter Milobar 36% BC Green Party, Dan Hines 12% Communist Party of BC 8%Demographically, women are twice as likely as men to support the BC NDP (42% vs 21% men who would vote BC NDP).BC Green Party support: Support for the BC Green candidate is drawn more from rural voters (29% versus 12% among urban voters)

      STRENGTH OF SUPPORT

      Two-thirds (66%) of decided voters describe themselves as strong supporters of their candidate and party. Nearly three-in-ten (28%) may change their vote.

      The BC Liberals and BC NDP are inclined to garner “strong” support for their party and candidate—75% and 74% voting for these parties are strong supporters. On the other hand, the BC Green Party candidate has garnered strong support from just one-third of Green voters (36%). Fully half (50%) of current Green party votes are potentially mobile.

Support strength among

BC LIBERAL VOTERS

Strong supporter 75% May change vote 21% Unsure 4%

Support strength among

BC NDP VOTERS

Strong supporter 74% May change vote 26% Unsure 1%

Support strength among

BC GREEN VOTERS

Strong supporter 36% May change vote 50% Unsure 14%

SECOND CHOICE

The BC Green party candidate, Dan Hines, emerges as the second choice for the largest number of voters in this riding.

BC Green Party, Dan Hines 38% BC Liberals, Peter Milobar 21% BC NDP, Barb Nederpel 16% Communist Party of BC 5% Not sure 20%

Nearly three-in-ten (28%) of BC Liberal supporters select BC Greens as their second choice. Just 11% would choose the BC NDP.

An even higher proportion (58%) of BC NDP voters mark BC Green as their second choice, far more than would select the BC Liberals as their second choice.

*Denotes a directional difference that may prove statistically significant at a larger sample size.

Advertisements
About Mel Rothenburger (4443 Articles)
ArmchairMayor.ca is a forum about Kamloops and the world. It has more than one million views. Mel Rothenburger is the former Editor of The Daily News in Kamloops, B.C. (retiring in 2012), and past mayor of Kamloops (1999-2005). At ArmchairMayor.ca he is the publisher, editor, news editor, city editor, reporter, webmaster, and just about anything else you can think of. He is grateful for the contributions of several local columnists. This blog doesn't require a subscription but gratefully accepts donations to help defray costs.

4 Comments on ELECTION – Poll shows Milobar ahead, doctor shortage biggest issue

  1. Starling87 // April 30, 2017 at 3:21 PM // Reply

    Helping Milobar is the fact that the NDP candidate Nederpal is a bit of a nutter.

    I heard heard her at the all candidates meeting advocating whack job thoroughly discredited ideas from the 90’s that even Horgan and Eby knows are ridiculous.

    One was no-fault ICBC insurance which would turn biased adjusters into judges and eliminate the ability of injured car accident victims from going after drunk drivers for pain and suffering compensation.

    Candidates like this make the NDP look bad and bring back memories from the 1990’s.

    She clearly is in the race for the ICBC fat cat executives and not the little people.

  2. Sandra Burkholder // April 29, 2017 at 6:55 AM // Reply

    This sample is too small – 239?. Plus there is a bias in telephone polls. Young people don’t answer the phone if they live with an adult with a landline and more importantly, they have cell phones, which overwhelmingly don’t make it onto survey lists. Older people will answer a poll, young people will hang up. I think it is unethical to use traditional polling…results are posted, leading people to think that Milobar is going to win, and that may influence how they will actually end up voting. The results obtained in this poll are most likely skewed and yet people will think it is a true reflection of the outcome of the election.

  3. (Herein, under ‘Election Issues’)
    “Groups more likely to identify lack of physicians as their top election issue include:
    Residents aged 65 and older (49%)… [and Mel…You can see the vein in his neck enlarge just thinking about the issue.];
    “Those residing within the City of Kamloops (42% vs 22% among those in more rural parts of the riding)… [out where Mel resides: lots of fresh air; a good place to rant and holler outdoors while cutting the fire wood up about this issue; something to do with, ‘If I have to go to just one more clinic…only to find they’re closed…’ -Stuff like that, that sort of boils the blood wherein you need large outdoor spaces with lots of space between the neighbours…If, they haven’t heard it already.]…” Ha!

    -No, its an important issue: -They just seemingly can’t get the clinic dates right…as to when they’re going to be open…or not….

  4. I don’t believe in polls. To me, the sample is just too small no matter how scientific they say it is. And just in case, I’m going to knock on wood and hope tht this one is wrong. I just don’t believe that Peter M will be a strong performer as an MLA.

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s

%d bloggers like this: