Ontario pollsters didn’t learn from B.C.

MONDAY MORNING EDITORIAL — Provincial Liberals won another one last week with the somewhat surprising majority win by Kathleen Wynne in Ontario.

Just a couple of days before the election, polls were showing a near-dead heat between her party, the Progressive Conservatives and the NDP, all with a third of the vote give or take a percentage point or two. A desire for change was touted as a major consideration of votes. The election, they said, was too close to call.

But on election night, the Liberals actually improved their position and will form a majority government.

Now, the analysts are trying to figure it out. Just like B.C.’s Liberals, the Ontario Grits were running far behind months before the election, thanks to scandals. But, just like B.C., Ontario had a new Liberal leader.

And, just like B.C., their main opponent blew an opportunity. The circumstances were a little different, mind you. In B.C. it was the New Democrats’ decision to oppose a pipeline; in Ontario, it was the Progressive Conservatives preaching cuts to public-service jobs.

There was another thing. In B.C. , the pollsters got it wrong. They simply didn’t keep up to the changing tide in the B.C. election. The pollsters got it wrong in Ontario, too. Liberal strategists say their internal polling had it right, just as Liberal pollsters in B.C. said they forecast victory.

So what’s going on? Well, once again, the credibility of public opinion polls has taken a slap on the wrist. B.C. showed there’s something wrong with polling methodology in this Internet age. Clearly, Ontario pollsters didn’t learn any lessons from the B.C. experience.