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Studies should consider combined impact of Ajax and New Gold, says economics professor

Dr. Peter Tsigaris speaks to 200 people at TRU on Sunday.

Dr. Peter Tsigaris speaks to 200 people at TRU on Sunday.

NEWS — The environmental review of the Ajax open-pit mine should consider the combined impact of Ajax and nearby New Gold, not just deal with Ajax in isolation, says a TRU economist.

Dr. Peter Tsigaris told 200 people in the TRU Clocktower Theatre on Sunday that the combined particulate matter emissions from Ajax and New Gold will exceed those of Highland Valley Copper.

“And hence the environmental review process cannot see Ajax in isolation but in terms of Kamloops having an equivalent to HVC next to its borders.”

Particulate matter refers to particles of dust, smoke and other material floating in the air. Particulate matter from Ajax would come from blasting, production and heavy-equipment exhaust.

Although the talk was on the economic costs of increased air pollution in Kamloops, it focused heavily on Ajax.

He recommended the City of Kamloops play an active role in studying the mine’s impacts, including creating a task force to conduct an in-depth impact and cost-benefit analysis for “cleaner and healthier” air in Kamloops.

“I’m volunteering my time and I don’t need any money,” he said to cheers and applause.

He also suggested the City consider putting a municipal tax on gasoline, which would have the potential to raise as much in taxes as KGHM says it will contribute from development of the mine.

At three cents a litre it would bring in $2 million a year; at 10 cents about $7 million a year and would cost the average household $140 per year, he calculated. Over the 23-year lifespan of the mine that would generate $161 million, more than the $110 million KGHM says will go to City coffers if the mine is developed.

Tsigaris suggested the City set targets to bring down particulate matter in the most polluted districts in the city. “There’s a social benefit because the most polluted areas of town are where the lowest socio-economic people live.”

Complimenting Domtar on its improvements in emissions, he said other industries should set targets to reduce their emissions, too.

And he called for a full independent health-impact assessment, which KGHM International has previously rejected as unnecessary.

Asked during the Q&A following his presentation what he thought of the Venture Kamloops economic study released last week, he said if a student had submitted it to him as a paper he’d tell him to take it back and redo it.

Tsigaris said the economic, environmental and health impacts of an industry must be considered together. He said the best way to analyze the potential impacts of a mine is to compare places that have them with places that don’t.

He showed comparisons of mines, city populations and their distance from major mines, showing that the proposed Ajax-Kamloops scenario is an exception. Towns so close to a mine are seldom as big as Kamloops.

“The higher the population is, the further away they stay. The distance (from Kamloops to a mine) should be about 70 km. and at a minimum 10.”

Tsigaris also showed comparisons of costs and benefits of clean air vs. dirty air.

“Benefits from an increase in economic activity can lead to air pollution and external costs,” he said. Copper and gold benefits consumers “because they need the copper.”

More supply and same demand equals lower prices because of competition, which is a negative effect on producers.

He acknowledged there is some community benefit to a mine. “There is one benefit and that is the donations and philanthropy that a mine will contribute to the community.”

But without the mine, that will come about in other ways.

There are economic benefits from clean air that come via lowered health costs. “The benefit arises from not giving nurses and doctors more jobs.”

Pointing out that the valley in which the city is located is prone to air inversions, he said, “The topography of Kamloops does not support air pollution. Winters are bad; they’re really bad in Kamloops,” he said, showing month-by-month statistics on particulate matter. “Summers are pretty good in terms of particulate matter.”

Tsigaris said there is “an alternative path” Kamloops can take. “There is a path that takes us from dirty air to cleaner air.”

“Clean air is good economics.”

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16 Comments on Studies should consider combined impact of Ajax and New Gold, says economics professor

  1. Unknown's avatar Bob McLaren // April 5, 2014 at 6:37 PM // Reply

    I am heartened by the intelligent, well considered, and balanced thoughts of many people in Kamloops regarding the multitude of impacts the Ajax mine may have on this city.

    I am reminded of a quote as follows. “There are perils that we can be sure of avoiding only at the cost of never knowing with certainty that they were real”. It would seem, therefore, that knowing with as much certainty as possible, should lower the cost. Ajax promotion, coupled with the obvious push of the Provincial and Federal governments to see the mine go forward, work to diminish, and confuse, the certainty of the impact and, therefore increase the potential for the cost to this community.

    Without the mine, this city will certainly prosper in other ways over the next decades. No mine does not suddenly mean that we are doomed to the backwater of progress.

    The many uncertainties, good or bad, associated with the impact, and the anxiety they impart, create a “lottery mentality”. Place your bets, buy your ticket and hope for the best.

    Is this good enough?

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  2. I watched a disturbing program on Ch 12 last night called “Tipping Points”, which showed how the ice sheet in the Arctic is shrinking incredibly fast, and in only a few years this will raise sea levels by 7 ft.! Scenes of glacial ice covered with “black stuff” which turned out to be the result of exhaust fumes from cars,factories,mining,etc collecting in the Arctic from all over the world, hit home to me that we MUST reduce emmissions SOON, as they are causing the ice to melt by increasing the absorbance of the sun’s rays.
    Putting a municipal gasoline tax on all vehicles is a start!

    Like

  3. Unknown's avatar Arjun Singh // March 16, 2014 at 2:40 PM // Reply

    Hi Keriann, I will certainly commit to watching Dr Tsigaris’ presentation when its up on youtube.

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    • Thanks so much for engaging with the community, Mr. Singh. It makes me respect you more, even when we don’t agree.

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  4. Unknown's avatar Dentist from Kamloops // March 11, 2014 at 6:10 PM // Reply

    Well done Dr Tsigaris to bring to light that a true analysis of the “economic impact” of Ajax as opposed to many uneducated anecdotal promises of “new jobs, new jobs”………. promises without proof or guarantee can woo any uninformed citizen. Finally someone with credibility voicing the truth!

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    • I actually believe that the KPHE has a great deal of credibility. As do the people who work/have worked in the industry that have spoken out against this project among others- but I know what you mean :)

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  5. Unknown's avatar Lyman Duff // March 10, 2014 at 3:48 PM // Reply

    The municipal gasoline tax is a great idea. It will make people reconsider needless trips and eventually re-evaluate the size of their automobiles/trucks. The tax needs to be extended on diesel fuel as well with certain, well-scrutinized exception for commercial use. As the use of fossil fuel decreases and the general size of our “fleet” gets smaller, the need for road infrastructure/maintenance will also decrease.

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  6. Unknown's avatar Sean McGuinness // March 10, 2014 at 12:46 PM // Reply

    To think clean air could actually be worth a lot. What a concept presented by Dr. Tsigaris! The point made about the necessity of looking at the cumulative effects of both New Gold and Ajax together was something I hadn’t thought of, and it is an excellent observation. He had obviously spent a lot of time preparing his talk and supported all of his claims with real data.

    Last week I got a glossy broschure in the mail from KGHM, you know, the science based on facts one. It is well written and well put together, but it doesn’t actually say much other than summarize all the studies they’re doing. It contained no information beyond that. On the other hand, we’ve seen a lot information carefully presented at the TRU lecture series. Is KGHM interested in those facts?

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  7. Dr Tsigaris’ talk was very well done. It certainly made me look at things a different way. I was very disappointed that more city politicians were not there. They need to gather information from many sources. The opposition to this project is educated and robust. It would be great to feel like the leaders in our city are paying close attention.

    This presentation was well worth the time.

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    • Unknown's avatar Cynthia Ross Friedman // March 10, 2014 at 11:57 AM // Reply

      FYI, every City Councillor, the Mayor, the two MLAs, and our MP were all given personal invitations. While the Mayor and Councillor Lange have been to previous forums, only Councillor Cavers has been to all. And there was time in the Brier schedule to make the talk…

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      • Any more ajax protests lined up? Might be time to turn up the pressure.

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      • Let’s hope people remember that when it’s time to vote this Fall!

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      • Unknown's avatar Arjun Singh // March 13, 2014 at 10:50 PM //

        I’d just like to note that I’ve been to previous forums as well – Dr Calder and Scott Bailey are the ones that come to mind.

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      • Unknown's avatar Kerriann // March 14, 2014 at 3:29 PM //

        That is great, Arjun. Will you commit to watching Dr Tsigaris’ presentation when it goes up on youtube? He had some fascinating research that shined new light on the proposed project.

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    • I never thought of air quality as to combine Ajax and New Gold. Interesting that if new gold is in fact increasing particulate matter, it was never really protested against.

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      • I think that is because it was announced as a done deal – there was no public comment or environmental review. That is ridiculous given their releases – just check the NPRI – it makes your head spin.

        We should at least be lobbying New Gold for far more mitigation – it is not intuitive that their releases would be so high. I had presumed that underground mines would produce far less particulate, lead and arsenic than an open pit mine, but New Gold’s releases were pretty high even compared to Highland Valley.

        Also, as we have not expanded the boundaries of the city, we seem to be getting the pollution externalities (including mortality) without the (meagre though they may be) tax benefits to the city.

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