Shortage of skilled labour could be part of city’s economic future, new study shows

NEWS — Kamloops could face a serious skilled labour shortage within a few years if a perfect storm of economic development occurs, a new study commissioned by Venture Kamloops concludes.

The study, released this week, paints four economic pictures — status quo, closure of Domtar, approval of Ajax and a green light for expansion of Kinder Morgan’s Trans Mountain pipeline.

Assuming Domtar stays healthy and both Ajax and Trans Mountain go ahead, the result could be a sharp uptick in demand for skilled workers.

What’s the answer?

“That’s a very good question,” Venture Kamloops executive director Jim Anderson told The Armchair Mayor News today. He said the just-concluded report makes it clear the city has to look closely at labour market demand, and that will probably involve another, year-long study.

Venture Kamloops is in discussions with Thompson Rivers University and local employers in preparation for the follow-up study.

The $30,000 economic impact study, commissioned last August and done by Roslyn Kunin and Associates, concludes the local economy is strong but sees as weaknesses high industrial property taxes, limited commercial and industrial land, high development cost charges, and “risk of not being able to attract and retain specialty labour because of high demand and competitive conditions outside of Kamloops.”

It says the economic impact from Ajax if it goes into operation by 2018 will be substantial. “Each year, directly, the operation will support almost 220 jobs, and generate $124 million in provincial GDP, and contribute $360,000 to the City of Kamloops’ revenue.”

The $5.5 billion expansion of the Trans Mountain pipeline would benefit local suppliers and contractors and add to the municipal tax base by $1 million annually, the report says, but will add “relatively few” jobs after construction.

The study says Domtar’s shutdown would have a serious impact on the Kamloops economy.

The pulp mill supports almost 380 jobs, generates $31 million in provincial GDP, and contributes more than $6 million to the City’s revenue, the report says.

A status quo Kamloops would see an average 2.2 per cent annual growth in real GDP, with employment growth of .8 per cent per year to 2020.

In Anderson’s words, “steady but unspectacular growth.”

“We analyzed Kamloops economic past and present, and projected the most likely economic future,” said Roslyn Kunin of the research firm Roslyn Kunin and Associates.

“This was done by researching and assessing several key economic factors and their most likely impacts on the region’s economy.”

The study developed a 10-year forecasting model to project the impacts of the four potential economic scenarios.

“This study will allow us to move forward on many of our initiatives and develop new strategies,” said Anderson.