ROTHENBURGER – Will ‘No incumbents 2026’ become a thing in civic election?

WHAT IF every current member of Kamloops City council was turfed in this year’s civic election?

It would be unprecedented. But it’s a prospect being promoted on social media these days under the slogan, “No incumbents 2026!” While the attempt to turn dissatisfaction with the council into some sort of movement is new, the disaffection itself isn’t. Every time there’s another controversy at City Hall, a large percentage of social media posts express a common opinion that comes down to: “They’ve all gotta go.”

Fact is, though, incumbents have a built-in historical advantage over newcomers. Most changes come from the fact that every election, one or more incumbents choose not to run again. Those who do run are in a strong position to keep winning.

Since 2011, incumbents here have averaged a re-election rate of almost 81 per cent, higher than the provincial average. Even when three incumbents ran for mayor in 2022 and were given the gate, all three who ran again for councillor were re-elected.

If we go back further in history, the trend has been the same. In 2008 I wrote a column headlined, ‘History shows Kamloops voters don’t like big changes.’ As an example, in 1990 there was much speculation that incumbent councillors were going to take a beating. But on election day, voters put six of seven incumbents back in office. In 1993, the same thing. And, again in 1996 and 2002.

(There was an exception in 1999, when only three incumbent councillors were returned to the council table. Three others didn’t run again, resulting in six of nine council members being newbies.)

“Seldom have Kamloops voters grown so tired of their council that they have opted for wholesale change,” I wrote.

“It’s hard for an incumbent to be defeated — they have to really work at it, because almost every election, almost every incumbent who runs is re-elected.”

There’s a tendency, I suggested, to chop the weakest link and stick with the rest.

One of the reasons for this is likely name recognition. Voters who don’t know much about newcomers may take the easy route and mark their X’s beside the names they know best.

Another reason might be a simple fear of change: if we put too many rookies into the lineup, who don’t know the ropes, will City Hall go all to hell?

There’s no evidence that newcomers perform more poorly than veterans, but we’ve never had a situation where 100 per cent of those around the council table are untested.

The other side of the coin this year is the question of whether being a familiar name is still an advantage, or actually a drawback. No member of the current council has avoided negative press.

It’s safe to say no City council has been as controversial as this one. But when it comes time to go into the voting booth, will electors opt for wholesale change and embrace “No incumbents 2026” or stay with the status quo?

Mel Rothenburger is a former Kamloops mayor, former Kamloops school board chair, and a retired daily newspaper editor. He publishes the ArmchairMayor.ca website and also writes a column for The Kamloops Chronicle..