FORSETH – Let’s not get too excited about leadership polls; give it time

IN THE PAST couple of weeks a couple of candidates for the leadership of the BC Conservative Party have been presenting polling results that they lead the pack – one even going so far as to say they have a lock on 44% of those who will be voting, and a twenty-five percent lead over the individual ranked second.

I am going to say that this one, from Kerry-Lynne Findlay, is highly suspect.

First of all the company conducting the poll, ERG National Research, is not a Member of Industry Bodies (the Canadian Research Insights Council, meaning they do not adhere to established industry standards for research, such as transparency, privacy, and methodological rigor. So says AI Overview which goes on to say that Based on alerts from the Canadian Research Insights Council (CRIC) and reports, ERG National Research should be treated with extreme caution regarding its reliability and legitimacy in conducting political polling.

Before I even read this information however, I was already doubtful, so I checked the link the provided, that led to the questions which were asked of those who agreed to participate in the poll.

For those who didn’t click the link, let me present you with Question #3; “If a vote were held today for the leadership of the BC Conservatives, which candidate would you support?”.  Here are how the 7 individuals were presented – and it should be noted that there are actually 11 candidates currently in the running:

• Iain Black … former BC Liberal Cabinet Minister
• Kerry-Lynne Findlay… former Conservative MP and Harper Cabinet Minister
• Yuri Fulmer … former BC Conservative candidate
• Peter Milobar … MLA and former BC Liberal
• Caroline Elliott … former BC Liberal Party Vice President
• Sheldon Clare … BC Conservative MLA
• Darrell Jones … former Save-On-Foods CEO

Does anyone notice what I saw?  Three of the candidates are identified as being previously involved with the BC Liberals – while one gets predominance as a former Conservative Party of Canada MP and a member of Prime Minister Stephen Harper’s cabinet.

Polls like these, with questions presented in this manner have a name … they are called Push Polls because they direct people to the answer they want to get. Again, using AI, they describe a Push Poll as using leading, negative, or false information in loaded questions to sway or “push” voter opinion against an opponent”.

Further while most polls are balanced in weighing responses from regions of the province, whether they are male or female, as well as age demographics, ERG and Findlay provide none of this information from the 528 respondents.  I, personally, have yet to see that information not included in polling results from mainstream polling companies such as Leger, Nanos, Ipsos, Angus Reid, Mainstreet and Research Co.

Personally, and I do have skin in the game as I will be voting for who becomes the next leader, I think it is far too early in the game to determine who may or not be leading amongst those who will be voting for the next leader of the Conservative Party of BC.

Candidates are still criss-crossing the province, with one (Yuri Fulmer) already having visited Kamloops, and two others making stops this week (Iain Black on Wednesday and Caroline Elliott on Thursday). And I feel fairly certain that the majority, if not all, other candidates will be making stops here as well.

So, before anyone gets excited about one poll showing a candidate with a 25% lead, and 44% support overall, let’s give it a few more weeks – especially given that one poll showed nearly 40% undecided.

Alan Forseth is a Kamloops resident. For 40 years he has been active, in a number of capacities, in local, provincial and federal politics, including running as a candidate for the BC Reform Party in the 1996 provincial election. He is currently President of the BC Conservatives Kamloops North Thompson Riding Association. He blogs at  Thoughts on BC Politics and More.