NATIONAL PULSE – PQ voters drive separatist push that majority oppose

The second in a three-part series that takes an in-depth look at the motivations of Quebec sovereignty

Pour la version française, cliquez ici.

By ANGUS REID INSTITUTE

February 18, 2026 – More than 30 years after the narrowly defeated second Quebec referendum, the separatist movement has been resurrected again on the backs of a resurgent Parti Québécois, who have not governed the province in more than a decade

With still much to be decided in the fall provincial race – and when, if ever, the PQ decides “winning conditions” make it the right time to call a referendum – new data from the non-profit Angus Reid Institute finds one-quarter (26%) would vote to separate in the event of a referendum held in the present day, split between those who are decided in their vote (15%) and those who are only currently leaning that way (11%).

They are opposed by approaching two-thirds (63%) who would vote for Quebec to stay in such a referendum, including half (50%) in the province who say they are definitely going to vote that way.

The “leave camp” falls mostly – though not entirely – under the banner of those who would also support the Parti Québécois were the provincial election today. Two-thirds (64%) of Parti Québécois voters say they would also vote “leave” in a referendum. But there are also pockets of separatism among supporters of incumbent Coalition Avenir Québec (15% leave), Québec Solidaire (16%) and the Quebec Conservatives (18%).

Although clearly the PQ are at the forefront of the push for the next referendum, sovereignty isn’t the only deciding factor among Quebec voters when it comes to their next provincial vote.

Identity, language and culture are some of the more compelling arguments for those who would vote for the province to separate from Canada.

*Smaller sample size, interpret with caution

More Key Findings:

• Three-quarters in the province believe the U.S. would use political means (76%) or economic means (79%) to compel an independent Quebec to join the states. Half (51%) also worry the U.S. could use military means.

• But those who would vote ‘leave’ if the referendum were today are less convinced the U.S. would compel an independent Quebec to join them than those who would vote ‘stay’.

• Nine-in-ten (91%) who say they would “definitely” vote to leave if the referendum were today say that a convincing reason for Quebec to leave Canada is that “Canada’s institutions will always favour English Canada over Quebec.”

• However, economic concerns appear to be influencing the “lean toward voting leave” group. More than half (54%) among “lean leavers” say the potential of increased economic instability from an independent Quebec is a reason for Quebec to stay in Canada.

Link to the poll here: www.angusreid.org/

Download .PDF with detailed tables, graphs and methodology.