NATIONAL PULSE – A divided right dampens sovereignty spark in Alberta

First of a Three-Part series takes an in-depth look at the motivations driving Alberta sovereignty

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By ANGUS REID INSITUTE

February 9, 2026 – They’ve made headlines for months, but Alberta separatists have apparently convinced few beyond a reasonable doubt that their path is the right one.  

New data from the non-profit Angus Reid Institute finds determined and decided opposition to separation vastly outpaces this sentiment on the other side. There are, however, many minds that are not made up. This report is the first of a three-part series exploring the two separatist movements tugging at the strings of confederation.

Fewer than three-in-10 (29%) Albertans say they would vote for their province to leave Canada if there were a referendum today and most in that group (21%) say they are leaning that way rather than definite (8%) in their choice. On the other side, two-thirds (65%) say they would vote to stay, and the larger proportion of that group are solidified in their vote (57% definitely vote to stay).

To further explore the ideas pushing and pulling Albertans on the issue of separation, the Angus Reid Institute put to respondents the common arguments for staying in Canada or leaving and asked if respondents found those arguments convincing or not.

For the “definite stay” voters, nearly all find their own Canadian identity (92%), Alberta’s fundamental place as a part of Canada (90%) and the prospect of an independent Alberta struggling to get its resources out of its landlocked state (93%) as convincing arguments.

The “lean stay” voters agree, but not nearly at the same rate (61%, 55%, 64% respectively). And those same “lean stay” voters say they are swayed by some of the key arguments to leave, including that Alberta gives more than it gets in confederation (88%) and the prospect of Alberta controlling all of its own resources (79%).

The “definite leave” and “lean leave” voters find little convincing about the stay arguments, including the potential issues of lack of tidewater access (8% and 14% convinced respectively) and the cost of replicating lost federal social services and infrastructure (7% and 4%).

Instead, the “leave” voters are nearly unanimous in finding the arguments to leave as persuasive, including Alberta freeing itself from “harmful federal policies” (98%, 94%) and complete control of provincial resources (97%, 95%).

More Key Findings:

• A majority (54%) of Albertans disapprove of how Premier Danielle Smith has handled the issue of separatism in Alberta. More than two-in-five (44%) approve of how Prime Minister Mark Carney has approached it.

• The “leave” and “stay” voters are apparently occupying completely different information environments. The top sources of information about separatism for those who would vote stay are mainstream media (71%) and social media (45%). Those who would vote leave are getting their information from alternative media sources (50%) and conversations with friends and family (45%).

• Three-quarters (74%) of “stay” voters say they would leave Alberta and move elsewhere in Canada if Alberta separated. Fewer than a quarter (23%) say they would stay in a newly independent Alberta.

Link to the poll here: www.angusreid.org/

Download .PDF with detailed tables, graphs and methodology.