JOHNSON – What’s next for Trump? Mexico, Iran, Cuba or Venezuela 2.0?

Part Two of a two-part series, looking at what the Venezuelan attack means when looking at the other countries and territories Trump has been eyeing up. Today, a look at Mexico, Iran, Cuba and a possible revisit of Venezuela.

FIRST, THE LONG-STANDING ally Trump has directly threatened — Mexico.

At first glance, it may seem as if Mexico’s President Claudia Sheinbaum Pardo, has far less to fear from Trump than either Colombia or Greenland as Trump’s words are not about regime change or coup.

When Trump has threatened U.S. military action in Mexico, it’s been focused on the cartels, which has practical control over a high proportion of Mexico’s territory, despite the efforts of several successive Mexican administrations.

Like in Venezuela, Trump has focused on Mexico’s relevance in the narcotics production and trafficking networks that funnel drugs into the U.S.

Unlike Venezuela, Trump has not accused Mexico’s of operating in a direct alliance with the cartels. Although Trump doesn’t believe Mexico’s administration is directly complicit, he does believe that the Mexican system has been compromised in its ability to fight the cartels.

As Trump noted to the media just last week, he offered to carry out targeted strikes and special operation raids against cartels in Mexico, targeting production, transportation, and potentially even cartel kingpins. According to Trump, Sheinbaum has refused.

The likely result may be that Trump might unilaterally attack the cartels directly, an act that will likely bring condemnation for using his military against a trading neighbour’s territories, and the killing of Mexican civilians.

I honestly wouldn’t put it beyond him to think this is a thing he could get away with once, so he will hit the cartels hard, and just deal with the political and trade repercussions the way he always does … by just ignoring it.

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SEE ALSO:  JOHNSON – What countries will Trump decide to invade next?
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Now we turn to Iran.

Today, Iran only gets a brief mention because of the sheer depth of the ongoing crisis there and the high likelihood that Israeli or American military action might be imminent.  By the time this is read, it’s very possible there has been cataclysmic change in Iran.

Last weekend, Iran spilled civilian blood in its attempt to hold power. Trump has already vowed a military reprisal. Israel briefed the U.S. last week on its plans for a potential new round of strikes across Iran. And according to a recent report, Iran’s leader Ali Khamenei has already worked out an exit strategy to Moscow.

Over the last several days, more than 10 American strategic airlifts have traveled across the Atlantic in Iran’s direction, reportedly with assets belonging to their elite helicopter unit, the Nightstalkers that were instrumental in capturing Maduro, and members of America’s Delta Force, the unit that completed Maduro’s capture, may have made the journey as well.

So, long story short, this story is unfinished, but at the very least Trump is considering a military intervention in Iran; it’s just a matter of when.

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On to Cuba; a nation with a long history with both Venezuela and the United States. The ups and downs of the U.S./ Cuba relationship, are well known.

But the relationship between Cuba and Venezuela is far closer. Cuba is one of the few countries to accept Venezuelan oil.

Now that Maduro is gone, there’s been curiosity about the effects on Cuba. Cuba and America still share a hostile relationship, especially under Trump. Democrats recently in office have warmed up with Cuba, but Republicans have long counted on the support of Cuban-American exiles and their descendants, who’ve advocate for Washington to use its power to get rid of the Cuban regime.

This week, U.S. Secretary of State … a Cuban refugee himself … Marco Rubio, derided Cuban leadership as “incompetent, senile old men,” and offered, “If I lived in Havana and I was in the government, I’d be concerned at least a little bit.”

Trump himself hasn’t been any more complimentary toward Havana, but he seems to almost dismiss the idea of a direct intervention, calling it unnecessary. According to Trump, Cuba is on its way to collapsing anyway. Perhaps he thinks that intervening in Cuba’s oil supply would be tantamount to Havana’s government’s collapse … but has been told that a military engagement there might leave America holding the purse and forced to manage the political nightmare of Cuba reconstruction.

Therefore, Cuba’s future is based on Trump’s own mood at the time, or on unforeseen events where Cuba may say something mean about Trump’s ego … and that’s all it would take.

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Finally, we’ve got to mention one more name on Trump’s potential hit list. Venezuela in a second round, and the person they left in charge there.

Washington didn’t elevate Venezuela’s clear opposition leader, Maria Corina Machado, or Edmundo Gonzalez Urrutia who international observers attest actually won the last election.

Instead, the U.S. went with Delcy Rodriguez, Maduro’s own former vice president, who is technically in charge of Venezuela but with a very keen awareness of a metaphorical sniper’s red dot bouncing around on the lapel of her blazer.

A quote from Trump: “If she doesn’t do what’s right, she’s going to pay a very big price, probably bigger than Maduro.” And says Rodriguez has agreed to “do what we think is necessary to ‘make Venezuela great again’.” End quote.

A chilling sentence.

What she does not have, is choice. Either she proves herself to be the partner that Washington was hoping for, or she will be replaced by somebody who will be.

All that matters to Trump is unlocking Venezuela’s oil industry for American exploitation, and ensuring that any democratic surge from the Venezuelan people doesn’t get in the way and that’s why America chose her over the actual elected opposition.  Another dictator in charge would be just fine.

So, those are the nations that seem to be next on Donald Trump’s hit list. Mexico, Colombia, and the territory of Greenland, plus Iran, Cuba, and Venezuela again.

So why is he doing this? Why the noisy rhetoric of absorbing all these places into Trumpland? Even when most of them are either unlikely or at best fanciful?

It’s about feeding his expansionism legacy ego, and if keeping the conversation alive like this works towards that goal … he’s going to be all over it, and keep talking up the big talk, even if he knows he won’t follow through.  It’s what he always does.

How these nations will react to this pressure is anybody’s guess, but at the very least, we can expect to see their leaders act as if they know that they might be in the crosshairs.

At the start of 2026, it’s a whole new world. Any nation that doesn’t adapt to the new reality,
risks being overcome, one way or another.

David Johnson is a Kamloops resident, community volunteer and self described maven of all things Canadian.