NATIONAL PULSE – A solid ‘no’ to 51st state on both sides of the border
By ANGUS REID INSTITUTE
January 14, 2025 – Comments once dismissed as “trolling”, “musing” or “Trump just being Trump” have taken on more serious overtones as the U.S. president-elect persists in talking about having Canada join the United States.
After a month of what was initially waved off as “silly talk”, the narrative is creating significant anxiety among Canadians, and bemusement among the few Americans actually aware of the situation.
A cross-border study conducted by the non-profit Angus Reid Institute finds that while one-in-three Canadians (32%) believe Donald Trump is serious in his professed goal of making Canada the 51st state, most Americans – two-thirds – have paid little attention to the incoming president’s comments.
When it comes to appetite for such a “merger” – Americans are twice as likely to oppose (49%) Canada joining their nation than support it (25%). The idea has little to no traction at home – except among Conservatives.
While one-in-10 Canadians overall say they would vote to join the U.S. in a referendum, that proportion rises to 20 per cent among 2021 Conservative voters and drops to three per cent among Liberals and one per cent among New Democrats.
If Canada does join, three-quarters (77%) of Americans say it should only be by our own choice, as opposed to the result of pressure (5%) or military force (1%).
Even if Canada did choose to join the U.S., only half of their southern neighbours favour (yes, neighbour and favour with a ‘u’) giving Canada full statehood, with citizenship and voting rights. One-quarter instead say Canada should be relegated to a reduced status like that of Puerto Rico, which does not have congressional representation and whose residents are not able to vote in presidential elections.
While Americans are not overly fond of the idea of Canada joining their union, politics plays a significant factor. Consider that Trump voters are more in support (42%) than in opposition (32%), were it up to them. Those who voted for Democratic nominee Kamala Harris provide significantly more pushback, with just nine per cent supporting the idea.
More Key Findings:
- Trump has said he wouldn’t use military force to bring Canada into the fold, but three-in-five Canadians (62%) say they don’t trust him to hold to his word.
- This discourse is having an impact on views of the U.S. from north of the border. Favourability is down 15 points from June of this year. Further, Canadians are now three-times as likely to view the U.S. as an enemy or a potential threat compared with two years ago.
- ARI asked those Canadians who oppose joining the U.S. if any number of factors would change their view. Most said they would not change their stance if they personally lost their job (74%), lost half their income (69%) or if Canada entered a deep recession (76%) because of economic pressure levied by Trump.
ArmchairMayor.ca 
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