JOHNSON – Reacting to Trump’s 51st-state talk plays right into his hands

IT’S BEEN FUN to sit back and watch the back and forth between President-elect trump and PM Trudeau around Canada being the 51^st American state and associated jabbing.

Since winning the presidential election in November, Trump has increasingly taunted Trudeau, often referring to him as a governor, equivalent to a state-level American leader on his social media platform, Truth Social.

“Their (Canada) Taxes would be cut by more than 60%, their businesses would immediately double in size, and they would be militarily protected like no other Country anywhere in the World,” Trump wrote in his Christmas Day post.

So, just what is going on here?  What exactly is Trump trying to do with all of this?

Let’s look beyond the surface level rhetorical jabs and remind ourselves that this is how Trump plays what he thinks is 4D chess … and that’s not to say it’s complex or even a mildly complicated political approach.

At the end of the day, it’s all just a power play, pre NAFTA negotiations.

But for us, let’s just look at it one step at a time.

First, NAFTA 3 discussions are around the corner.  Trump’s America is going to want some serious concessions from Canada (dairy and softwood for quick examples of a long list), and there’s a good chance we might see a fundamental shift from the trade ideologies of the three-country NAFTA to a CAN/US bilateral agreement anyway.  Trump knows that as of late December, we are a long way off of actually talking about a deal, but he is definitely in the right time window to begin curating the negotiating space.

Step one to that?  In Trump’s mind it means denigrating his upcoming opposition, so he looks and feels in control of the situation.  So, he uses the long-time trope of Canada joining the U.S.

He’s not even original.

Second, it doesn’t make the slightest difference to him, which person and or which Canadian political party sits on the other side of the negotiation table.  It’s helpful for Trump to have Trudeau around right now in the situation he is in domestically … being pretty much an ostracized lame duck … as hurling insults at Trudeau doesn’t mean anything in the long term as he won’t be around anyway.

This makes today … prime sandbox/ play time for someone like him.  Enter the bully intending on making other children cry and run away.

Trump’s approach entering into a big deal like this is to first set the other side up as evil and basically in the wrong, in this case by throwing out insane numbers of how much ‘Canada has taken advantage of the U.S.’ … and attaches large and unrealistic, reinterpreted dollar amounts to the suggestion.

Then he throws out a ludicrous benchmark long before he even takes office, to put the opponent on the back foot – in this case a 25-per cent tariff on all things Canadian – then starts the long-haul conversation denigrating the other party heading for the table – saying Canada has no value if it isn’t actually American.

And boom … he sets off panicked tongues in Canada.

He believes that having a disheveled and reactionary tense opponent in negotiations is the preferred prep work … rather than a team-based discussion between equals or a negotiation of ideals.

Picking up on the old ‘Canada as 51^st State’ rhetoric is a good one as it pokes at Canada, gets everyone riled up, and means nothing … and most importantly is far off topic from trade negotiations.  His entire goal here is to absorb the news cycle, and get everyone in Canada in the argument of defending itself … when they don’t need to.

Then when he does arrive at the table, he feels big.

The bully is flinging sand around the playground, and calling out the kid with glasses.

This is a false flag game.

Trudeau for the most part hasn’t responded to it … which may end up being the adult approach.  Don’t get caught up in the blow by blow, and stay above the fray.  By doing this, you just don’t give it air.  There is no point to anyone getting into a shouting match with a toddler, even a 78-year-old one trying to bend messaging, before important negotiations.

Just don’t play along, and focus on setting your own agenda.

Senior Liberals have sought to downplay the comments or frame them as well-intentioned jokes. Canada’s ambassador to America, Kirsten Hillman, characterized Trump’s social media posts as ribbing between two close countries. Foreign Affairs Minister Melanie Joly said in early December that she had joked with Republican senators, offering them to join Canada as the 11th province.

Opposition leaders and pundits around Canada have been caught up by Trump’s gamesmanship, and has run with the ball he gave them, doing exactly what he wants by changing the conversation in the country.  What they don’t realize is that by doing this, they are not actually serving Canada’s interests … even if they do manage to satiate their base voters need for daily programming.

It was only this week that Trudeau posted a twitter link to that viral 2010 Olympics video where Tom Brokaw explains Canada to Americans; a surface level description that is clear to define Canada as a sovereign nation … the tweet simply titled ‘Some information about Canada to Americans’.

Trudeau just left that there, a quiet mic drop to be sure.

This tweet came just hours after former Bank of Canada governor Mark Carney publicly denounced Trump, saying the incoming American president’s remarks about “Governor Justin Trudeau” were “carrying the ‘joke’ too far.”

“The casual disrespect, the poor tax math, and ignoring that workers on both sides of our border will be better off if we work together”.

Carleton University professor Aaron Ettinger, who studies Canada-U.S. relations, said Canadian officials have rightly been dismissing the social media posts and maintained a ‘focus like a laser beam’ on the real and ‘existential threat’ of tariffs.

Trump’s silliness over the state of Canada’s sovereignty … strikes me as being profoundly unserious.  These are taunts, churlish provocations that are not mature, and do not reflect just how serious the coming trade war is.  Trump is likely continually posting about Canada because it plays well to his supporters, without being seen as a real threat of annexation.

The one thing that must make Trump happy is Chrystia Freeland’s resignation.  Remember she summarily handed his administration a serious dousing in the last NAFTA talks, where she pretty much put a simple ‘no’ to all the point-by-point rhetoric he wanted in the deal.  At the same time, she and her team got senators and governors who benefit from U.S./Canada trade, to badger the White House.

Trump basically got nowhere.

This time Trump is trying to parlay the argument with complete reinterpretations and fabrications.  Let’s look at the comment at the top of this column:  him saying that if Canada joins the U.S.:

– “Canada taxes would be cut by more than 60 per cent”
(maybe corporate taxes, but not individual taxes – Americans pay far, far more),
– “businesses would double in size”
A comment that means nothing; which businesses? what kind of businesses? and how much of this is because of the coming deregulation of businesses in many industries to U.S. SOP’s … a practice we in Canada prefer?
– “militarily protected like no other country in the world”
A thing that three really big oceans and a hair-trigger neighbour already has covered.  We’re good.

Notice how he doesn’t mention joining the ‘so successful’ American healthcare system?

In other words … there’s nothing in any of this,
which reverts what this is, from sandbox bluster.

Canada needs to just shut up and stop giving him strength by reacting to every single blurt he comes up with.  Getting caught up in it just feeds him and allows him to direct the conversation the way he wants it to be seen.

If we don’t control our own narrative, we have already lost the upcoming negotiations.

We … the federal governments and parties, as well as provincial outspoken leaders like Doug Ford and Danielle Smith need to stop telling Trump what we will do to counter the tariffs, this far ahead.  It just gives them a chance to plan for the electrical power drop threatened towards some states that buy power from Ontario, for example.

Why prepare them months ahead to your actions?  Millions of homes and businesses suddenly going dark the moment the tariffs hit, will work against Trump immediately. You telling him your gonna do it two months before …

Why would anyone tell any negotiation table how it is going to react, months before they even sit down?
What an idiotic approach.

Doug Ford … just shut up and be ready to hit the switch.

David Johnson is a Kamloops resident, community volunteer and self described maven of all things Canadian.