U.S. ELECTION – Race is tight but early returns favour Kamala Harris

Those who have already cast a ballot give Democratic candidate a 14-point advantage (53% to 39%)

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By ANGUS REID INSTITUTE

October 29, 2024 – With just one week until Election Day, tens of millions of voters have already cast their ballot, while millions more hear final arguments from Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump and Democratic candidate Kamala Harris.

New data from Angus Reid USA finds Harris faring well on early ballots, holding a 14-point edge over Trump. Half of those who have voted in advance say they supported her (53%) compared to 39 per cent who say they voted for Trump.

Adding these keener early voters with those who plan to wait until Nov. 5, however, generates a much closer race. Overall, 49 per cent of registered voters have either voted for Harris or say they will, while 47 per cent say the same of Trump.

Gender and generational dynamics tell much of the story. Among men, Trump holds a six-point lead in vote intent. Among women he trails by 10. Younger voters (ages 18-34) offer Harris a 21-point lead, while older voters prefer Trump by six.

With vote intention suggesting a close race, voters are feeling uneasy. When asked to choose from a list of positive and negative terms to describe their sentiment around voting, the top option for both Harris and Trump voters is “anxious”. Some of this may be due to publicity around Republican “poll-watching” groups the R.N.C. has recruited to monitor polls around the nation, while for many Americans the election is simply very stressful.

Election security has been a massive point of contention in the leadup to Nov. 5, with questions over whether Trump’s willingness to accept the results driving much of the conversation. Just over half (54%) of Americans say they are confident in the safeguards in place, notably an eight-point increase compared to when the same question was asked by Angus Reid in January of this year. That said, far fewer Trump supporters (31%) hold this confidence compared to supporters of their opposition (82%).

For the full release including methodology, click here.