NATIONAL PULSE – Loyal Liberals want PM to stay; potential Grits not so much
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau. (Image: Hansard)
Mark Carney seen as the only potential replacement to bring back wayward Liberal supporters
By ANGUS REID INSTITUTE
October 28, 2024 – It’s been a rocky start to the fall sitting period for the governing Liberals, which finds itself dealing with turmoil from outside and in.
The minority government has been challenged by two non-confidence votes, and more may be on the way. Meanwhile, the Liberals deal with internal strife after a caucus revolt of more than 20 MPs demanded Liberal leader and Prime Minister Justin Trudeau step down.
Through all this, new data from the non-profit Angus Reid Institute finds the Liberal universe remaining sizable, if in a purely hypothetical sense. More than half of Canadians (55%) say that they would consider supporting the party in a future federal election. The problem for the Liberals is that just 21 per cent of decided and leaning voters currently do.
So, what do the Liberals do to reach their ceiling, and avoid the floor? While some MPs have demanded a refresh in the form of a new leader, current Liberal voters are unsure. Half (52%) say Trudeau should stay on for the next election, outnumbering the one-third (32%) of Liberal voters who believe a new leader is needed.
Those who say they would definitely consider the Liberals in a future election (8% of Canadians) are even more unsure, with near equal numbers saying he should stay (39%) and go (35%). A much larger slice of the population is those who are more difficult for the Liberals to reach, the 28 per cent of Canadians who say they wouldn’t rule the party out come the next election.
Within this group, a majority (53%) believe Trudeau should step away, suggesting that a new leader – assuming it’s the right leader – could broaden the party’s tent.
As to who should be next in line to lead, as noted in June, few names continue to generate a high level of enthusiasm. Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland is a popular choice among those who are closer to the Liberals but is a net negative among those who are on the fence.
Former Bank of Canada Governor Mark Carney is most likely of the eight individuals presented to draw in others from further outside of the Liberal core as well as within it. Former Premier of British Columbia Christy Clark, who publicly stated she would be interested in the position, is a net negative among all groups.
Another factor to watch over the coming months is the interplay between Liberal and NDP voters. Those who currently support the NDP show a high level of mobility between the two parties, with many saying they would consider supporting the Liberals under the right conditions. This, as NDP leader Jagmeet Singh continues to endure low levels of favourability (37%).
More Key Findings:
- There is strong support for the Bloc Québécois’ bill to increase Old Age Security (OAS) payments to those aged 65 to 74. Two-thirds (64%) say they would support the Liberals passing the measure, as it sits in limbo in advance of the Bloc’s Oct. 29 deadline for the government to get the bill done.
- The CPC continue to hold a more than 20-point lead in vote intention, with 43 per cent of decided voters saying they would support the party, more than the Liberals (21%) and NDP (20%) generate combined.
- However, all three parties have similar sized vote universes – or the percentage of the Canadian population who would consider voting for them in a future election. 56 per cent say they would consider voting for the CPC, 55 per cent the Liberals and 58 per cent would consider voting the NDP.
ArmchairMayor.ca 
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