BC PULSE – NDP, Conservatives in dead heat after BC United’s withdrawal

By ANGUS REID INSTITUTE

August 30, 2024 – An unprecedented withdrawal by the official opposition B.C. United mere weeks before the start of a general election campaign has levelled the playing field between the two remaining main competitors.

New data from the non-profit Angus Reid Institute measured after Kevin Falcon announced B.C. United’s exit finds a statistically tied race as voters survey the new election landscape.

Both the Conservative Party of BC (44%) and the BC NDP (43%) currently have the support of more than two-in-five decided and leaning voters. The BC Greens gather vote intent from one-in-ten (10%).

The aftershocks of B.C. United’s departure from the election are still being felt – many candidates in both the United and BC Conservative camps face uncertain electoral futures – and many British Columbians are still evaluating the options left on the table. Among the general population, one-in-ten (11%) say they are currently undecided with no lean to any particular party. This includes one-in-six (16%) women older than 54, one of the more reliable groups of ballot casters in Canadian elections.

Voters will have several factors to consider, but perhaps the two that will play the biggest role in this election will be leadership and dueling crises of housing affordability and opioids addiction. Incumbent Premier and NDP leader David Eby is viewed more favourably (43%) than his primary opponent, Conservative Party of BC leader John Rustad (33%).

However, criticism of Eby has been growing since he first assumed the role of premier in November 2022, while many say they do not know enough to form an opinion of Rustad. The BC Conservatives leader does enjoy better “momentum”; that is, British Columbians are twice as likely to say their opinion of him has improved over recent weeks (18%) than to say the same of Eby (9%).

Also perhaps in Rustad’s favour is widespread criticism of the path the province is currently on when it comes to what will likely be the defining issues of the campaign in housing and drug policy. A majority of British Columbians say the province is on the “wrong track” when it comes to dealing with the opioids crisis (68%) and making housing affordable for everyone (69%).

More Key Findings:

• Criticism from likely BC Conservative voters is near universal on the housing and drug policy files. But they are also joined by approaching half of likely NDP voters who believe B.C. is on the “wrong track” when it comes to the opioids (49%) and housing affordability crises (47%).
• Two-thirds (68%) of those who voted for the BC Liberals in the 2020 election say they plan to vote for the BC Conservatives now. One-in-six (17%) currently intend to vote for the NDP and eight per cent are undecided.
• The BC Greens appear to be struggling with vote retention – half of 2020 supporters say they would place their vote elsewhere or are undecided – and vote certainty – three-in-ten (29%) current supporters say they “could change” (20%) or “really haven’t made up” (9%) their mind.
• Two-in-five (40%) British Columbians say the province is on the “right track” when it comes to feeling safe where they live. However, on this and other measures – respondents’ personal financial situation, housing expenses and access to health care, and the opioids crisis and making housing affordable for everyone – more are likely to say instead the province is heading in the wrong direction.

Link to the poll here: www.angusreid.org/