JOHNSON – It’s not about the Liberals or their policies; it’s about Justin Trudeau

OK … SOO … a Federal election might still be 16 months away, and a great many things could happen between now and then. The defeat of Liberal Leslie Church by Conservative Don Stewart in a Toronto-St. Paul’s federal byelection has started tongues wagging across the country.  Is this a bellwether moment?

Let’s wade in … maybe with a bit of a Hot Take thrown in.

“This was obviously not the result we wanted, but I want to be clear that I hear your concerns and frustrations,” PM Justin Trudeau said immediately after the loss. “These are not easy times. And it is clear, I and my entire team, have much more hard work to do to deliver tangible, real progress that Canadians can see and feel.”

This is clearly a continuation of the messaging that Trudeau has been repeating ad-nauseum for the last couple of years; working hard, real results, average Canadians.

Recently regarding elections, leadership and polls, he said; “Canadians are not in a decision mode right now, what you tell a pollster — if they ever manage to reach you — is very different from the choice Canadians end up making in an election campaign.”

There’s some logic to that argument, at least for an incumbent government. Elections are usually a choice, not merely a referendum … sure OK … I’ll buy that, but the real problem isn’t polls or media coverage.  It’s the thoughts and discussions of the average Canadian at dinner tables and around the BBQ, pubs and knitting circles that matter.

The perception coming up now … is that people have just had enough.

You don’t need a poll to see and know that.

It seems Mr. Trudeau is being advised that things could look different in October 2025 with hard work and a plan to work harder. Inflation might continue to cool. Housing construction might pick up. The vibes might improve.

Some say he doesn’t seem to realize the depth of the eyeroll of the populous.

Others say its possible he has surrounded himself in ‘yes men’ and is not hearing the proverbial needle drop when a member at the Wednesday coffee crowd at Tims suggests; “you know, he could win again.”

This is the Canadian way electorally.  Voters start off happy with a change and vote in the new guy with the other party, then support it in tough times … maybe re-elect it once … then always eventually grow tired of it … and then en masse decide to chuck it out with the compost when they have had enough and move on to the next fresh fruit.

“Ooo look … shiny.”

The thing is … it rarely has anything to do with party or government policy or decisions.

Let’s start by ignoring the useless and incorrect rhetoric of bumper-sticker repeating commenters online that like to claim that Trudeau has been the ‘worst in Canadian history’ or ‘destroyed the country’ or claim he is some kind of ‘a dictator’ …  this opposition injected verbal hyperbole swallowing fringe really need to visit a few real despotic totalitarian countries … and dare to complain out loud or online.

The typing fringe just doesn’t live in reality, or understand how the real world works.

The rest of us real Canadians accept that even Trudeau ‘did fine’ regarding generally running the country, just as Harper did ‘ya whatever’ and even back to Chretien or Mulroney or the older Trudeau.  They all ‘do fine’.

No one planned a coup, or tore up the constitution, or actually destroyed the economy Venezuela style or ran a U.S. Jan. 6 insurrection because they lost.

Sure, there is and has always been general disparity between platform concepts of parties and leaders; carbon tax, federal programs, government operation processes, energy policy and even general economic policy differences … but that doesn’t mean one way will drive the country into economic dissolution or catastrophic hyper inflation … it’s just called democracy.  There’s lots of ways to skin the cat, as they say.

One way or the other, regardless who holds the reins … taxes go up. If it isn’t a carbon tax, it will be another way.

Opposition’s job for four years is to continuously remind us that everything in our lives sucks and it’s all the government’s fault.  Sooner or later, the opposition party contending for power in the pre-election period has to stop complaining and searching for attention pings from the 6 o’clock news or the r/Canada Reddit thread, and explain what they would actually do differently, put it into writing and let us read it without the bombastic hyperbole of how bad the old guy is. That’s what real Canadians vote on.

Sometimes they don’t make this transition from opposition to electioneering well, Andrew Scheer is an example.  He stayed in the anti-Justin tirade right through the election period and never left a mark policy wise.  Canadians didn’t react well to that, and even conservative supporters didn’t want to vote for the angry guy without a platform.

At the end of the day … as shown in this week’s Toronto-St. Paul’s byelection, Canadians might vote for a party, they might vote for an opposition leader, but once they are tired of the guy they are tired of hearing about … he’s out.

Is it possible there’s nothing Trudeau could say or do now, that would make Canadians feel better about a government led by him in 2026?  I would say it’s past likely, once Canadians take that corner from “he’s fine” to “he’s gotta go” … there’s no way back.

Stephen Harper learned this lesson.

Such widespread dissatisfaction suggests larger forces are at play — the lingering trauma of a pandemic, the strain and uncertainty caused by inflation, the corrosive influence of social media, a divisive war in the Middle East and elsewhere, or a pile of local or in home reasons to request change; food prices, gas prices, housing availability and costs, personal stresses and traumas.  The list is endless.

People are frustrated, and come election time they take it out in a direction that it’s easy to act out against.  Right now, Canada has a doozy.

“People everywhere are facing a certain amount of frustration,” Trudeau said recently, “And I truly believe that, as we choose to step up on solving those challenges — to contrast with a political vision that so far consists of the Conservatives just making people more angry and saying everything is broken — I know Canadians are pragmatic people who focus on solutions. And that’s exactly what we’re going to be doing.”

This sounds like he’s blissfully unaware that people are just tired of him and nothing is going to change that, regardless how hard the Liberals work, and that’s being actually pragmatic.

At the same time, this evaporation of support does not seem to be a wholesale repudiation of the Liberal agenda.  If you look past the carbon tax, there’s not a lot of general disagreement with Liberal accomplishments over the last near 10 years.

When Abacus Data surveyed Canadians in May about what a government led by Pierre Poilievre should or shouldn’t do, only 28 per cent said it should “definitely” or “probably” repeal the Liberal government’s national childcare program, and the same number said a the same about the national dental care program.

They are literally telling him not to screw with their stuff.

Sixty-three per cent did say a Poilievre government should eliminate the federal carbon tax, but at the same time 80 per cent said Poilievre’s government should take climate change seriously.  This may make the Conservatives explain how they would reduce Canada’s greenhouse gas emissions.  A portfolio so far uncommented on, one of many.

Next steps are up to Poilievre.  If he is not clear on platform issues and continues to sidestep questions of policy, and in his pitbull style continues to soundbite slam Trudeau without substance, or his platform … if he ever does release it … does not jibe with expectations, those are his votes to lose.

Canadians aren’t mad enough at Trudeau to throw the country under the bus to get rid of him.

Theres always a Green, an NDPer, maybe even a PPC candidate in every riding, or a Bloc looking for votes in a Quebec riding … to throw a vote at if not happy with Pierre and done with Justin.

In Liberal corners, the conversation right now, and exacerbated again since the byelection in Toronto, is whether or not Trudeau should step aside.  He refuses to; hard work, real progress, he sees and feels you … remember?

It remains to be seen how ugly things might get within the Liberal Party, if he insists on staying. If even a few Liberal MPs start worrying aloud about their own chances of re-election, Trudeau could face a string of desertions and a revolt, and Toronto MP’s are quaking at the moment.

The problem is it may be too late.  If he had announced his departure a year ago when asked, there would have been enough time for a full Liberal leaders convention, plus enough time for Canadians to hear from and become accustomed to the new leader.

We are 16 months away.

It’s not enough time for anyone to be known, effective and seen as an appreciated opponent to the now established Poilievre, that the masses will get behind.

History would suggest that changing leaders doesn’t necessarily solve anything for the party in power anyway. Pierre Trudeau left in 1984 and the Liberals under John Turner were drop kicked a few months later. Brian Mulroney walked away in 1993 and the PC’s were sent packing under Kim Campbell. Jean Chretien did the same to Paul Martin in 2003 and the Liberals were reduced to a minority in 2004 — before losing power entirely in 2006.

Switching leaders is not a panacea to victory.

If we did suddenly find ourselves launched into new leader mode for the Liberal party, it would be no surprise to see the seeming heir apparent Chrystia Freeland step up, but other potentially interested folks might be: former Bank of Canada governor Mark Carney, Public Safety Minister Dominic LeBlanc and President of the Treasury Board Anita Anand.

As mentioned before, anyone other than Freeland would face an uphill battle for even name recognition, much less pre-election needs of trust.

The Hot Take?

If Trudeau announces his retirement right now, literally this week … I think we are looking at a Poilievre / Conservative minority … as in it’s too late for any kind of Liberal government.  If he does not leave and rides out the election, it might even be a Conservative majority as across the country it might actually become an anti-Trudeau referendum.

Trudeau needs to think about the country and the party, and jump ship before his presence does more damage.  It’s not the Liberal party, it’s not policy or even carbon taxes … it’s him, and people are done.

The new guy shine is long gone.

David Johnson is a Kamloops resident, community volunteer and self described maven of all things Canadian.