BC PULSE – How federal vote intention might impact this fall’s provincial vote

Analysis reveals how federal vote preferences impact provincial vote intention ahead of fall BC election

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By ANGUS REID INSTITUTE

April 1, 2024 – As British Columbians look ahead to marking their ballot in a provincial election this fall, the changing federal vote landscape plays out in the background. The federal Conservatives have climbed to the front of a three-way race in the province. Meanwhile, the Conservative Party of B.C. is clawing votes away from the formerly entrenched B.C. United party. How do these dynamics intertwine and what does it mean for B.C.’s forthcoming election?

New data from the non-profit Angus Reid Institute finds those in B.C. who support the federal Conservatives are more likely to support the provincial Conservatives than BC United in the pending B.C. election. More than half (56%) of likely federal Conservative voters place their vote with the provincial Conservatives currently. This comes as BC Conservative leader John Rustad has promised to “axe” B.C’s carbon tax if his party were to win the coming election, aligning himself with federal Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre, who has not officially endorsed either United nor the provincial Conservatives.

As the federal Conservatives rise in popularity in the province, both Rustad and BC United leader Kevin Falcon are jockeying for right of centre support. Meanwhile, the BC NDP finds itself as the dominant choice for left-of-centre voters, attracting both federal Liberal and NDP supporters.

Link to the poll here: www.angusreid.org/