NATIONAL PULSE – Support for Ukraine dropping after two years of conflict

By ANGUS REID INSTITUTE

February 6, 2024 – February 24 will mark two years of bloody and devastating war initiated by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022.

As both sides continue to hunker down in the reportedly static conflict, new data from the non-profit Angus Reid Institute find that Canadians have shifted their gaze away from the region, and the number saying Canada has offered “too much support” has doubled since the early weeks of the war.

One-quarter (25%) of Canadians believe their country is doing too much to assist Ukraine in its fight against the Russian invasion, up from 13 per cent who said the same in May 2022. During the same interval, the number who say Canada is not doing enough has halved (38% to 19%).

One group is driving the bulk of this sentiment – Conservative voters. The number of 2021 CPC voters who say Canada has done too much for Ukraine has more than doubled from 19 to 43 per cent between May 2022 and now. And while there has been an increase in both past Liberal and New Democrat voters holding this view as well, their proportion respectively has risen closer to one-in-ten.

The number of Canadians following news of the conflict closely has dropped from 66 to 45 per cent in that same period – a trend that holds for Canadians of all ages and political stripes.

Much of this leads to questions about the future and what role Canada should play. One-third (35%) say Canada should support Ukraine “as long as it takes” and one-in-ten (10%) believe it should only continue for one more year. The rest of Canadians are uncertain (30%), believe the war should end now with a negotiation for peace initiated by Ukraine (20%) or want Canada to end its support (5%).

As the war drags on, few see Ukraine’s situation as futile despite Russia’s superior military force and economic might. Just one-in-five (19%) say supporting Ukraine is a “waste of money” because the country’s situation is “hopeless”. In fact, a majority (62%) believe the war will end with Ukrainian victory, though few Canadians (12%) believe it will have reclaimed all its territory at the end of it.

This is perhaps sustaining belief that the right move for Ukraine is to keep fighting the war. At the one-year anniversary of the war, a majority of Canadians (55%) believed it was not time for peace and Ukraine should keep fighting. A similar majority say the same today.

More Key Findings:

• On average, Canadians see the CPC voting against the Canada-Ukraine free trade deal in November as a net negative for Canada’s worldwide reputation and for trust in a potential CPC government to stand up for Canada’s allies. Likely Conservative voters are more likely to see blocking the deal as a positive on both fronts.

• Those who intend to vote Conservative if an election were held soon are half as likely (26%) to want Canada to provide military support to Ukraine for “as long as it takes” as Liberal (54%) or Bloc Québécois (55%) supporters.

• A majority of Canadians (57%) believe Canada has completely or mostly fulfilled its promises to Ukraine. Those who are following the war closest are the most likely to disagree at one-in-five (22%).

Link to the poll here: www.angusreid.org/