NATIONAL PULSE – What could grow, or shrink, the CPC’s blue tent

Posted on December 14, 2023 in Feedback, National Pulse, Page One // 0 Comments

(Image: ourcommons.ca

By ANGUS REID INSTITUTE

December 14, 2023 – It has objectively been a good year for Conservative Party and opposition leader Pierre Poilievre. His party has reportedly reached record levels of fundraising and now holds its largest advantage in vote intention since 2019.

But while new public opinion data from the non-profit Angus Reid Institute finds ample reason for optimism at CPC headquarters, it also highlights potential pitfalls.

What results is a deep dive into the opportunities, and liabilities, for the opposition party and its leader as they try to cement an early and somewhat tenuous lead in vote intention.

At its largest and under the best possible circumstances, the CPC vote universe has the potential to grow to 54 per cent of the Canadian vote base. Were things to go terribly for the party however, the size of the CPC’s ballot haul could shrink to half that – just 27 per cent.

In play are so-called “soft voters”. These are Canadian adults who are either indicating they’ll vote CPC but aren’t fully locked into their vote, or those who say they’re planning to vote for either the NDP or Liberals – but could still consider the Conservatives.

The vote dynamics among these key groups reveal competing priorities and tensions. Should Poilievre and the CPC bank in one direction, they have the potential to lose swing voters. A deke in the other direction could split the bases, while some ideas are seen as safe and attractive across the spectrum.

Most attractive to these groups: a hypothetical CPC promise to block further privatization in health care. This concept is more likely to increase support for the CPC among more than three-in-five swayable Liberal (62%) and NDP (71%) voters, while also resonating with more than half of soft CPC voters (55%). Similarly, preserving current access to abortion is a winner among swayable centre-left voters and soft Conservatives.

By contrast, Poilievre’s public commitment to defund the CBC is one of the most likely promises to rankle soft voters currently placing their vote with the Liberals or NDP. The most talked about policy in the Conservative compendium – ending the federal carbon tax – is one that plays well to lock soft CPC and soft NDP voters. Soft Liberals, however, are most likely to say they would be dissuaded from the CPC if the carbon tax was killed.

More Key Findings:

Vote intention finds the Conservatives commanding 41 per cent of the would-be electorate, compared to 24 per cent for the Liberals and 20 per cent for the New Democrats.

Just three-in-five (58%) 2021 Liberal voters currently say they will vote for the party again, the lowest number since 2021.

The word Canadians use most to describe Pierre Poilievre is “arrogant” (42%). This is chosen by one-in-five soft CPC voters (21%), half of soft Liberal voters who don’t rule out the CPC (48%), and two-in-five soft NDP voters who are also considering the opposition party (38%).

Poilievre resonates most as a “strong critic of the current government” (79% agree) but is also seen by many as “insincere” (45% agree).

One of the most likely changes to push soft Liberal voters away from the CPC is a situation where Prime Minister Justin Trudeau steps aside for a new leader. In this case, more than two-in-five (44%) say they would be less likely to consider the Conservatives.