EDITORIAL – Political silly season begins but it’s still a two-horse race

Posted on May 6, 2019 in Editorials, Page One, Rothenburger // 0 Comments

An editorial by Mel Rothenburger.

ANOTHER BYELECTION TODAY, this one in Nanaimo-Ladysmith to fill a vacancy left after then-NDP MP Sheila Malcolmson switched to provincial politics and is now an MLA.

We know from experience by-elections are no guarantee of what will happen in general elections but each and every political event these days is dissected and interpreted for what it might mean for Oct. 21, 2019.

In politics, it’s called the silly season, and it’s getting underway earlier than usual.

Take last week’s news that Liberal MP Andrew Leslie won’t run again. A retired lieutenant-general, he’s been in Parliament only one term.

The real news, supposedly, is that he says he’ll testify on behalf of Vice Admiral Mark Norman, who is charged with breach of trust.

The political piranhas have swarmed around this event and exaggerated its significance.

However, a CBC news analysis puts it in perspective. Contrary to how the Conservatives are depicting it, Leslie’s decision not to run — and those of people like Jody Wilson-Raybould and Jane Philpott — is not an indication that Liberals are deserting a sinking ship en masse.

Turns out a higher number of Liberal incumbents than usual will run for re-election in October. Majority governments typically see at least 10 per cent of their caucus not run for re-election. Despite their leader’s many fumbles, Justin Trudeau’s Liberals will lose just seven per cent.

Neither does all the talk about an NDP resurgence or a Green break-through mean much. The polls make it clear the Conservatives are considerably in front, but this is still only a two-party race, and the NDP and Greens aren’t in it, not really.

Regardless of all the reading of tea leaves, the only poll that counts will be on Oct. 21.

Mel Rothenburger is a former mayor of Kamloops and newspaper editor. He publishes the ArmchairMayor.ca opinion website, and is a director on the Thompson-Nicola Regional District board. He can be reached at mrothenburger@armchairmayor.ca.