Analysis of KVS survey on Ajax shows ‘a city divided’
NEWS/ AJAX — The Kamloops Voters Society will take another public opinion poll on the Ajax mine proposal but recent analysis of an earlier poll confirms Kamloops is “a city divided,” the group says.
“The divisions are clear and can be seen amongst neighbourhood, gender and age groups,” KVS president Brad Harrison said today (Thursday).
He said the KVS is neutral on the mine and the surveys are an effort to provide insight into what residents think. The first survey, taken last October, had 2,770 respondents.
The first survey shows those living closest to the mine site disagree most strongly that the mine will have a positive impact on the continued development of housing in the Aberdeen and Pineview areas or that it will have a positive impact on property values, and feel dust will have an adverse effect on their neighbourhood.
Those most strongly favouring a referendum live inAberdeen and South Kamloops. While North Kamloops and Dallas-Valleyview residents agreed there should be a referendum, the numbers were slightly lower.
While most North Kamloops and Dallas-Valleyview residents agreed with City council remaining officially neutral until the environmental assessment is completed, a slight majority in Aberdeen disagreed.
Most in Aberdeen and South Kamloops opposed Ajax, while almost half in North Kamloops and Dallas-Valleyview were against the mine, and about six per cent were undecided.
Visit http://www.kamloopsvoterssociety.ca for more information on the survey results.
The next KVS survey on Ajax will be in the fall.
ArmchairMayor.ca 
Does anyone out there know how to choose a statistically significant sample for a poll? Maybe if we got enough volunteers together we could do our own.
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Based on my own past experience with polling both at the KDN and in politics, a poll sample of about 200 will provide quite reliable results for the Kamloops population. I actually did polls of 100 that proved quite valuable. A poll of 350 is an excellent sample. Consider that many national polls of 1,000 are considered good samples. Pollsters will tell you that past a certain point, enlarging the poll sample provides quickly diminishing value. It has to do with the “considered accurate within XX percentage points 19 times out of 20” method of assessing results. The way in which poll questions are worded is extremely important, which is where professional pollsters earn their keep. The reason polling has sometimes missed the mark in recent years is the problem of obtaining a valid demographic with random sampling — pollsters can’t rely on home phone numbers anymore because many people have gone to unlisted cellphones as their only contact. That said, a phone poll is still considered the best, I believe, because in direct person-to-person contact the interviewer can use “push” questions to sort out genuine answers. Online polling doesn’t have that ability.
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Perhaps door to door would work best, then.
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